Giornata non troppo positiva per la prima della classe del Continente Blu: in Germania l’indice ZEW, che tiene nota delle condizioni economiche, ha registrato un netto peggioramento rispetto al previsto (4.1 vs 15.3 atteso).
Pessimo anche il clima in Francia: Macron ha avuto la meglio sulla riforma delle pensioni ma il costo politico per raggiungere questo obiettivo è stato grande, con una emorragia di fiducia e consenso da parte dei francesi. Ora però il Capo dell’Eliseo vuole riacquistare consensi cercando maggiore dialogo con i sindacati. Ricordiamo che la riforma ha equiparato l’età pensionabile dei francesi a quella dei cittadini degli altri Paesi dell’Unione, portandola a 64 anni.
Il presidente della Federal Reserve Bank di Atlanta Bostic ha dichiarato che i forecast prodotti sull’inflazione non prevedono la recessione, mentre Bullard ha indicato che i tassi di interesse dovranno continuare ad aumentare data la mancata diminuzione dell’inflazione, ritenendo che l’intervallo 5.50%-5.75 dovrebbe essere quello ideale da raggiungere e mantenere per un buon periodo di tempo. I permessi di costruzione rilasciati nel mese di marzo sono minori rispetto alle aspettative, portandosi a un valore di 1,413 milioni vs 1,450 previsti.
In Inghilterra giornata segnata dal dato positivo dell’indice dei salari medi inclusi i bonus, che era atteso al rialzo del 5,1% ma sorprende uscendo al +5,9%. In scia a tale dato, migliora l’occupazione su base trimestrale, con 169 mila nuove unità rispetto alle 50 mila attese.
11:00 – Indice dei Prezzi al Consumo UE (Mar)
EURUSD: 1.0950
EURGBP: 0.8800
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According to the Halifax house price index, the price of residential property fell for the first time since 2012. The 1% depreciation between May 2022 and May 2023 came in line with expectations as analysts assess the impact of higher interest rates on households.
The vast Ukrainian Nova Khakovka Dam has been destroyed in the Russian occupied region of Kherson, Ukraine releasing a torrent of water as concerns for residents and nuclear power facilities up and downstream grows.
Plans have been unveiled for a Universal Basic Income (UBI) trial in the UK, with the think tank Autonomy currently seeking financial backing. It is hoped that the trial will span over two years with participants receiving £1,600 each month and being in control of how they spend or save the funds.
Today all eyes are on US labour market data where the markets will be looking to gain an insight into the health of the US economy and the extent to which the jobs market is feeding into inflationary pressures ahead of the Fed’s meeting on 12 June.
Last night, the House comfortably passed the debt ceiling bill in arguably the most important stage in the process to ensure that the world’s largest economy averts a technical default. The House of Representatives cleared the Fiscal Responsibility Act by 314-117, the bipartisan deal assembled by President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy.
Tonight, congress will vote on the bill agreed by President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, as the US tries to avert X-date by raising the debt ceiling. According to Reuters, “the deal caps federal spending and forces more poor people to work for food aid, concessions that Democrats hate. But it also preserves much of Biden's Inflation Reduction Act and punts the next debt ceiling showdown into 2025, which Republicans hate.”
As markets weigh on the Bank of England’s interest rate decision on 22 June, this morning’s hotter-than-expected inflation print has seen investors upwardly revise rate hike expectations. Indeed, market reaction to this morning’s print is a further reaffirmation that inflation continues to be the hottest topic of conversation.
The incumbent Recep Tayyip Erdogan has secured another five years as Turkey’s president following a run-off election which saw him take 52% of the votes, against Kemal Kilicdaroglu’s 48%