Serial Returners

According to fresh figures by Retail Economics, “serial returners” are expected to send back a gargantuan £6.7bn worth of products this year and account for around ¼ of all online returns across the UK. This forms part of a trend which has seen a rise in the number of people that intentionally order excess amounts of goods online only to return a significant amount back. Often, this may involve ordering multiple colours of the same clothing, and keeping just one, if at all.

According to Retail Economics, serial returns on average send back as much as £1,400 worth of products each year.

The group also found that those aged 18-24 years return approximately twice the number of items as those aged 65 and over. Here they write that “Young adults have grown up experiencing fierce rivalry between retailers and changing consumer rights. They have witnessed the balance of power shift away from retailers towards consumers, to a point where return volumes now pose a ‘significant headache’ for many retailers; not just from a profit standpoint, but also in returning unwanted products back into the supply line.”

Such a dynamic however puts ever more stress on the reverse logistical supply chain, adding ever more complexity. Moreover, as the UK’s online retail sector becomes more prevalent, such issues could become more prevalent.

On Friday, we learnt that the proportion of online sales rose to 27.5% in August 2024 to 27.7% in September 2024, up from a pre-pandemic level of just under 20%.

This morning the People’s Bank of China cut their 1-year loan prime rate (LPR) to fresh lows, amid growth concerns. Here, the central bank cut the benchmark interest rate 25bps from 3.35% to 3.1% with five-year rate also being cut 25bps from 3.85% to 3.6%.

The decision follows the PBoC’s decision to cut rates 10bps in July and comes as the central bank tries to keep monetary conditions loose in an attempt to stimulate growth across the economy.

In Q2, China economy grew just 0.7% and rose only marginally by a further 0.9% over Q3.

Beijing continues to grapple with an economy facing headwinds in the form of a downturn in consumption, fragility in local government debt and a precarious property sector.

Subdued demand has led to easing inflation, which manifested itself in last week’s CPI and RPI figures. Here, CPI came in at 0.4% on an annualised basis for the month of September against a consensus which was pointing to a 0.6% print. As we looked at last week, this follows a period of four consecutive months of deflation recorded in China between October 2023 and January 2024.

Meanwhile, China’s Producer Price Index came in negative, falling 1.3% an annualised basis for the month of September.

Tensions continued to rise in the Middle East over the weekend, with Israel conducting fresh strikes across Lebanon – including its capital Beirut. The IDF have said that they have targeted multiple locations of the bank, Al-Qard al-Hassan, which they say is being used to support Hezbollah. (The bank has been sanctioned by the US since 2007).

As the BBC’s Hugo Bachega writes “the attacks appear to mark an expansion of Israel’s war against the group, going beyond military infrastructure used by the group.”