Chain Reactions

The Economist has written an article on the ways in which some police forces are trying to tackle bike theft, through using databases which track bike owners. The caveat of course is that with 90% of bike thefts going unsolved, most police forces simply are not expending resources on this issue, with the article citing one politician who described the crime as being “effectively decriminalised”.

The article notes that last year some 200,000 bikes were reported stolen in England and Wales, though the actual number is expected to be considerably higher given that many go unreported. It then considers the wider implications of how the bike thefts (and the lack of solved bike thefts) leads to a breakdown in trust with policing and turns people off cycling – the latter of which is particularly problematic given the level of investment into the UK’s bike infrastructure.

(For more on the article, follow the link below: https://www.economist.com/britain/2024/09/30/the-scourge-of-stolen-bikes-in-britain)

Earlier this year, the Transport Secretary Louise Haigh signalled that investment into cycling would be a priority for the new government. Here, she said that “We’re in a climate crisis. We’re in a public health crisis; getting people walking and cycling and moving more are essential to solving both of those in the immediate term and in the long term”. Haigh continued by saying that “there’s lots of evidence to show that will reduce the number of GP appointments by hundreds of thousands, if not millions, a year.”

Indeed, according to a report conducted in February by the IPPR, a think tank, “increasing levels of cycling to those seen in Denmark would save the NHS £17 billion over 20 years by improving people’s health and wellbeing.”

As such the ROI on cycling infrastructure (included in the term ‘active travel infrastructure’) is as much as £5.62 for every £1 spent, according to the IPPR. For context, building roads is understood to have an ROI of £2.50 for every £1 spent.

As cycling continues to become more prevalent, its therefore evident that policing bike theft will be an important aspect of the UK’s cycling journey.

For more on the IPPR’s report, follow the link below: https://ippr-org.files.svdcdn.com/production/Downloads/Stride_and_ride_Feb24_2024-02-05-162030_godi.pdf

This afternoon, the ECB are expected to cut rates by a further 25bps. This would mark the third rate cut in the present cycle and bring their deposit rate facility to 3.25%, main refinancing operations rate to 3.65% and marginal lending facility to 3.4%.

The decision to cut follows a further easing of headline inflation and concerns around growth.

During the last policy meeting, the ECB cautioned that “the Governing Council is determined to ensure that inflation returns to its 2% medium-term target in a timely manner” and as such “will keep policy rates sufficiently restrictive for as long as necessary”.

Since then, headline inflation eased to 1.8% in September across the Eurozone, marking then lowest level since April 2024. Core inflation remains higher however at 2.7%, having eased just 10bps form the previous month’s print, indicative of how inflationary pressures remain, particularly amongst the services sector.

Looking ahead, the ECB forecast headline inflation (annualised CPI) to average 2.5% over 2024, 2.2% during 2025, and 1.9% in 2026. In the nearer term, policy makers warned that inflation could rise from its current 2.2% level given that previous sharp falls in energy prices will drop out of the annual rates.