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Adzuna: Wages Fall for First Time in 6 Months

Macro Monday, Adzuna suggest that wages have fallen for the first time in 6 months, continuing EV tariff negotiations for the EU and China, and rising business activity levels across the US.

Macro Monday
According to the latest data from Statista, Brits held 190 million BBQs over 2020, up from 150 million in 2018.

Adzuna: Wages Fall for First Time in 6 Months

Data out this morning from Adzuna suggest that wages have fallen for the first time in half a year, indicative of how the heat of the UK labour market could be easing.

Between the month of April and May average annual salaries fell 0.1% to £38,765.

While the data from Adzuna does not perhaps catch headlines in the way that the ONS’ monthly print does, it is nonetheless given to the Cabinet Office and ONS in order to provide an insight into the UK labour market.

Earlier this month, data from the ONS indicated that wage growth excluding bonuses rose 6% on a yearly basis in the three months to April 2024, coming in line with the previous month’s print and in line with market expectations.

Given the inflationary impact of wage growth, markets have been keeping a close eye on data releases, as speculation grows on when the Bank of England will conduct their first rate cut.

Presently, money markets are implying are that there is around a 65% chance of a rate cut by August.

Elsewhere, job vacancy numbers were more or less unchanged from last month but were nonetheless over 18% down from May 2023.

EU and China Talks Continue Talks on EV Tariffs

The EU and China will continue to negotiate on EV tariffs, in what is becoming one of the most hotly watched talks of their kind given how high the economic, social, and political stakes are.

Yesterday, it was made clear that negotiations between the two economic power houses would commence as they seek to settle disputes in the trade of EVs.

Diplomats will continue to meet over the coming weeks, as focus turns to how talks could impact the wider trading relationship between one of Europe’s largest trading partners.

(According to Eurostat, “In 2022, China had the most goods imported into the EU while the United States received the most goods exported by the EU”).

With Brussel’s looking to toe a tougher line on goods being imported into the single market with subsides, the EU have been looking to put 48% tariffs on electric vehicles from China. This was planned to start in July, promoting the two sides to look to see if they could settle disputes.

This follows the Biden Administration putting a tariff of 100% on EV’s being imported from China into the US.

US’ Strong PMI Data

Business activity rose to its highest level in 26 months across the US, according to Friday’s PMI report.

According to the report, output showed signs of advancing further – meaning that it has now risen for 17 consecutive months.

Employment also rose for its first time in three months, rising at its fastest rate in nine months.

Following the print gold prices came under pressure, falling over 1% during the session. Here, prices fell from around $2365 dollars per ounce to below $2320 as investors continued to weigh up the impact that strong PMIs would have on the Fed’s monetary policy.

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