Israel-Iran – The Weekend Update

As the Israel-Iran conflict rages on through the weekend and into the new working week, we thought it prudent to summarise an update on the matter.

Saturday morning saw a fresh trade of air attacks as the conflict slipped into a second week. This followed a flurry of failed diplomatic efforts in Genova late Friday. Reports from Iranian officials claimed that Iran will only step back in the room with US negotiators once Israel stops attacking it.

Later that day, unconfirmed reports suggested that Israel had hit the Isfahan nuclear research complex, Iran’s largest nuclear site. The same reports indicated that the strikes had failed to result in any hazardous leakages. State media reports two people were killed and a further four were injured in the central Iranian holy city of Qom in an unrelated wave of Israeli strikes.

The story of the weekend, however, has been the physical engagement of the US military late Saturday night. Trump announced that seven US B-2 bombers had struck three key Iranian nuclear sites under “Operation Midnight Hammer”.

Several deception tactics were deployed to mislead Iran’s defence systems, according to US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth and Dan Caine. As the aircraft entered Iranian airspace, more than two dozen Tomahawk cruise missiles were launched from a US submarine, accompanied by a fleet of fighter jets. The lead B-2 aircraft dropped a total of 14 GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators (MOPs) – otherwise known as “Bunker Busters” – on two target areas. By 00:05 BST Sunday morning, all three Iranian nuclear sites had been hit, Caine continued.

Following the US strikes, Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social that the “damage to the nuclear sites in Iran is said to be monumental” and noted that the attacks were “hard and accurate”, executed with “great skill shown by our military”. The complete effectiveness of these strikes is unconfirmed at the time of writing.

As Sunday continued, Iran vowed retaliation. In a major move, news later divulged that Iran is threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil chokepoint. The chokepoint is the only sea route from the Persian Gulf to the open ocean, and about 20% of the world’s oil transits the waterway. The US Energy Information Administration has described it as the “world’s most important oil transit chokepoint.”

According to Goldman Sachs, if oil flows through the strait were to drop by 50% for one month and then were to remain down by 10% for another 11 months, Brent is forecast to “briefly jump” to a potential peak of around $110. Nations unaffected by strikes will most certainly be affected by the inflationary and low global growth implications that closing the strait could have.

The decision to close the waterway is now in the hands of the country’s National Security Council. Vandana Hari, founder of energy intelligence firm Vanda Insights, states that the possibility of closure remains “absolutely minimalistic”. If Iran blocks the strait, the country risks turning its neighbouring oil-producing countries into enemies and risks hostilities with them, she said. Furthermore, a closure would also provoke Iran’s market in Asia, particularly China, which accounts for a majority of Iran’s exports. “So very, very little to be achieved, and a lot of self-inflicted harm that Iran could do,” Hari continued. The US Secretary of State has since urged China to help prevent the closure of the strait.

With both global economic and social livelihoods still very much at stake, the world implores the countries involved to come to an agreement before it is too late.