UK Labour Market

It was a mixed picture from the UK labour market this morning with wage growth surpassing expectations on the one hand and unemployment rising faster than expected on the other.

Against forecasts of a 4.7% print, average earnings excluding bonuses rose by 4.8% on an annualised basis over the three months to September, indicating that regular pay in the UK increased to £651 a week.

While the figures exceeded forecasts, it nonetheless marked the slowest wage growth since June 2022, giving policy makers some reason to suggest that inflationary pressures from the UK’s labour market may continue to ease. Nevertheless, with real wage growth remaining unchanged at 1.9%, policy makers will continue to keep a close eye on the impact that today’s figures will have on inflation moving forward.

When looking at the UK’s unemployment rate, today’s data indicates that it increased from 4% in August to 4.3% in September, marking the highest level since May’s print. This came as the number of job vacancies fell to its lowest level in over three years, as the number eased to 831,000.

Policy makers are expected to announce new goals at the COP29 Summit in Baku, Azerbaijan today. It’s understood that one of the main goals will involve a target of reducing emissions by 81% compared to 1990 levels by 2035.

As we looked at yesterday, this comes as data from the EU’s climate service revealed that October marked the 15th month in a 16-month period where global-average surface air temperature exceeded the 1.5°C threshold above pre-industrial levels.

Indeed, the UN’s World Meteorological Organization (WMO) have announced that this year is set to be the world’s warmest on record.

Amid a number of world leaders like Joe Biden, Emmanuel Macron and Xi Jinping being absent for the conference, Kier Starmer will address the summit today. (Note that Starmer will be one of just two G7 Leaders at the conference).

It’s understood that he will commit to the aforementioned target and reiterate the need for global action.

On domestic policies, it’s expected that he will announce a package of up to £200m to offshore wind companies to build factories in traditional oil and gas areas. The government hopes this will assist with attracting investment for the production of parts like wind turbine blades in places where oil and gas form a significant part of their economy. Last month the government issued a statement pledging £21.7 in available investment for projects to capture and store carbon emissions across the UK over the next 25-years. This came just days after the UK’s last operational coal-fired powered station ceased operations, calling time on 142-years of coal-powered electricity in the UK and making the UK the first major economy to have stopped using coal as a means of generating electricity.

Ahead of today’s event, the PM said that “By acting decisively and early, the UK has an opportunity to lead the world in the industries of the future – working in partnership with business – creating real energy security, cutting energy bills and building jobs and supply chains in the UK.”

Back on the topic of COP29, Starmer continued by saying that “at COP I will lead efforts to protect Britain from climate change by also working with other countries to accelerate the global clean transition to tackle the causes at its root”.

England had just 100 minutes of sunshine in the first 10 days of November, according to data from the Met Office. This comes amid the UK being in an “anticyclonic gloom” which happens when “high pressure traps a layer of moisture near to the Earth’s surface and that brings a prolonged period of dull and cloudy weather, but with pockets of mist and fog as well” according to a Met Office Spokesperson.

This anticyclonic gloom is understood to be a leading factor in why there has been just 10% of the standard number sunshine hours for this time of year.

According to the Met Office, Kinloss, Scotland enjoyed as much as 35 hours of sunlight in the first 10days of November, while Wittering and Saint Helier saw no sunshine whatsoever.

Generally speaking, London sees around 73 hours of sunshine over the course of November against 71 in Edinburgh and 42 in Manchester.

This is in stark contrast to the city of Calama in Chile which has an average of 363 hours of sunshine, ahead of Keetmanshoop in Namibia 348, Broome in Australia at 336, Muscat in Oman at 291 and Yuma in Arizona at 270.

It’s perhaps unsurprising that a 2018 survey by YouGov found that almost 2/3rd of people across the world believed that the number of daylight hours affects their productivity.