Straight To The (Bullet) Point

There isn’t too much to deep dive into today, so a few bullet points of items that don’t need further explanation, as follows:

• UK shop price inflation fell to 0.2% last month, down from 0.6% in May and its lowest reading since October 2021. This is being driven by food prices continuing to fall and also significant reductions on TVs ahead of the Euros.
• A couple of ECB members have said they’re not in a hurry to lower rates further and nobody can see more than another two cuts this year. This comes as the European central Bank were the first of the major central banks to finally ease monetary policy.
• It’s rumoured that China could cut its Reserve Ratio Requirements this month and also remove red tape to foreign inflows. The RRR ratio is the capital buffer that banks need to keep -the lower it is, the more they can lend. Foreign investment in China was only $33bn last year, its lowest level in decades.
• Donald Trump has seen the supreme court rule in his favour that former presidents have “absolute immunity” for ‘official acts’. This relates to the January 6 Capitol riots and the case has now been passed back to a lower court to decide what acts would have fallen within this remit (and he is therefore immune from further criminal action). This is a big win for the Donald, but it has stoked criticism from the opposition, as the supreme court once again voted down party lines, with a 6-3 split.

• Oil prices have risen in the last couple of sessions as Hurricane Beryl rolls through the Caribbean. The hurricane is a category 5 storm, and this is the earliest on record that a cat 5 has formed in the hurricane season. The pathway doesn’t look like it will hit any oil infrastructure in the Gulf of Mexico, but if this is just the second storm to hit, then it could be a very damaging hurricane season in the region.
• North Korea have said they’ve successfully tested a ballistic missile capable of carrying a 4.5 ton, super-large, warhead. It doesn’t sound like anything good can come of that news.
• In slightly better news from sanctioned states, Venezuela will restart direct talks with the US. Talks were suspended in 2023 after the US re-imposed sanctions on the country. No specific topics for discussion were outlined, but it’s a start…
• From an economic standpoint, we’ve only got European inflation numbers at 10am to look forward to on the economic calendar, though tomorrow gets a lot busier as we’ll see PMI service readings from the UK and Europe.

Have a great day!