Return to Insights

Morning Update

The UK’s largest asset manager, Legal and General have emphasised that businesses are insufficiently pricing in climate change associated risks.

Nick Stansbury, head of LGIM’s Climate Solutions, maintains that he has become less convinced that companies are adequately investing into the green transition, meaning that the likelihood of the Paris climate agreement being met is far less. The report stated that “the world could easily absorb the costs associated with realising the goals of the Paris climate agreement. But the window to successfully meet a 1.5C climate outcome is closing at a worrying speed”. Under the 2015 Paris agreement, delegates from around the world agreed to take steps to limit global warming to below 2°C above pre-industrial levels while pursuing efforts to try to limit it to 1.5°C. According to LGIM’s modelling, a transition to below the 2°C would lower monthly global GDP by just 1bp over the next 25-years – though this figure is subject to differences across regions. However, if firms and policy markers fail to take the necessary steps for a gradual transition and instead are required to do a sudden transition, ensuing inflationary pressures and instability may harm investors.

This comes as EU Carbon Permits are currently trading at below €95 per tonne having fallen from around €105 per tonne, earlier this year. This marked the first time that Carbon Permit prices reached triple figures. According to the FT, here “the threshold has been seen as psychologically important, and a price at which companies may start looking more seriously at investing in expensive emerging technologies such as carbon capture and storage.”

It is thought that the carbon credit system helped reduce emissions in the EU by roughly 4% by 2020, with much of this reduction being driven by firms shifting from fossil fuel usage to renewables. Hence, as permit prices rise, it is hoped that firms will decarbonise.

Today will see the release of the Financial Policy Committee’s statement, where markets are anticipating some lines on the health of the UK economy and in light of recent events that of the UK banking sector also. Last week, the FPC stated that that “the UK banking system maintains robust capital and strong liquidity positions and is well placed to continue supporting the economy in a wide range of economic scenarios, including in a period of higher interest rates”.

PE and VC Investments into the UK Slide

According to S&P Global Market Intelligence, the transaction value for private equity and venture capital investments in the UK fell 61% over 2022 on an annualised basis, with a decline in large deals driving much of this fall. Last year there were just nine deals of this type valued at over $1bn. Given that large deals accounted for some 75% of the overall transaction value, the fact that they were at their lowest level in 5-years thus fed into the overall grey picture. S&P Global Market Intelligence wrote that “Private equity transactions in the U.K. are expected to remain slow during the first quarter due in large part to a gap in pricing. The pricing dislocation between sellers and buyers will impact the number of deals until that gap is bridged, according to Tom Whelan, partner and head of private equity in London at McDermott Will & Emery.”

As investor focus remained on the global banking environment, despite concerns assuaging, prevailing fragile sentiments meant that the S&P 500 ended yesterday 1.16% lower while the tech heavy Nasdaq also lost 0.45%. Elsewhere, the Dow Jones slipped 0.12%, while the Stoxx 600 closed flat with the ECB’s top supervisor Andrea Enria expressing concern that investors remained on an edge and could be spooked by relatively small moves in the CDS market.


If you would like a PDF of this commentary, please contact us and we'll be in touch.

Contact us


Find out how we have helped our clients meet their hedging requirements.

Nova Khakovka Dam Destroyed in Kherson, Ukraine

The vast Ukrainian Nova Khakovka Dam has been destroyed in the Russian occupied region of Kherson, Ukraine releasing a torrent of water as concerns for residents and nuclear power facilities up and downstream grows.

Think Tank Seeks Backing for UBI Trial

Plans have been unveiled for a Universal Basic Income (UBI) trial in the UK, with the think tank Autonomy currently seeking financial backing. It is hoped that the trial will span over two years with participants receiving £1,600 each month and being in control of how they spend or save the funds.

All Eyes on US Labour Market Data

Today all eyes are on US labour market data where the markets will be looking to gain an insight into the health of the US economy and the extent to which the jobs market is feeding into inflationary pressures ahead of the Fed’s meeting on 12 June.

House Passes Debt Ceiling Bill

Last night, the House comfortably passed the debt ceiling bill in arguably the most important stage in the process to ensure that the world’s largest economy averts a technical default. The House of Representatives cleared the Fiscal Responsibility Act by 314-117, the bipartisan deal assembled by President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy.

Debt Ceiling Agreement to go to House Vote

Tonight, congress will vote on the bill agreed by President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, as the US tries to avert X-date by raising the debt ceiling. According to Reuters, “the deal caps federal spending and forces more poor people to work for food aid, concessions that Democrats hate. But it also preserves much of Biden's Inflation Reduction Act and punts the next debt ceiling showdown into 2025, which Republicans hate.”

Core, Blimey!

As markets weigh on the Bank of England’s interest rate decision on 22 June, this morning’s hotter-than-expected inflation print has seen investors upwardly revise rate hike expectations. Indeed, market reaction to this morning’s print is a further reaffirmation that inflation continues to be the hottest topic of conversation.

Erdogan Secures Another Five Years as Lira Plummets to Record Lows

The incumbent Recep Tayyip Erdogan has secured another five years as Turkey’s president following a run-off election which saw him take 52% of the votes, against Kemal Kilicdaroglu’s 48%

UK Retail Sales Rise

UK retail sales rose higher-than-expected this morning having increased 0.5% on a month-on-month basis for April. This beat market expectations of a 0.3% rise and came after a 1.2% fall last month.

Find out more about our foreign exchange solutions
Contact us