Middle East Tensions One Year On

Headlines continue to focus on escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, one year on from the 7 October massacre where Hamas killed over 1,200 people in Israel and took 251 others hostage. The intervening 365 days has, as the BBC’s international editor describes, seen how “once again, war is reshaping the politics of the Middle East.”

In a statement released this morning, the Prime Minister said:

“One year on from these horrific attacks we must unequivocally stand with the Jewish community and unite as a country. We must never look the other way in the face of hate”.

He continued by saying that “We must also not look the other way as civilians bear the ongoing dire consequences of this conflict in the Middle East. I reiterate my call for immediate ceasefires in Gaza and Lebanon, and for the removal of all restrictions on humanitarian aid into Gaza.”

Over the weekend, the Israeli military continued to target Hezbollah across Lebanon – including further strikes in its capital, Beirut. Ten people in northern Israel have also been injured following an attack from Hezbollah.

As the conflict continues, its estimated that some 42,000 people, primarily civilians have been killed in Gaza according to the Hamas-run health ministry while Lebanon’s Health Ministry has announced that over 2,000 people have died from Israeli attacks on the country.

The international community also continues to closely monitor the increasingly fragile between Israel and Iran, and the extent to which the former will retaliate following the latter’s firing of 180 missiles into Israel last week. Netanyahu since said that Iran has made a “big mistake” and “will pay for it” warning the regime that “We will stand by the rule we established: whoever attacks us – we will attack”.

Further updates on the latest developments can be found here.

This morning, the Halifax House Price Index indicated that UK house prices have risen at their strongest annualised rate since November 2022, with average house prices now just marginally lower than the all-time highs recorded in June 2022.

On an annual basis house prices rose by an average of 4.7%, while on a monthly basis, house prices rose by 0.3% over September, in line with the growth recorded in August. This brings the average property to £293,399, according to Halifax.

Commenting on the data the Head of Mortgages at Halifax said that “Market conditions have steadily improved over the summer and into early autumn. Mortgage affordability has been easing thanks to strong wage growth and falling interest rates. This has boosted confidence among potential buyers, with the number of mortgages agreed up over 40% in the last year and now at their highest level since July 2022.”

On Friday, figures from across the pond indicated that the US economy posted 254,000 new jobs over September, beating expectations. This represented the strongest print in six months, and marked a significant increase from June, July and August’s figures which came in at 118,000, 144, and 159,000, respectively.

Friday’s figures also came in stronger than the rolling 12-month average, which currently stands at 230,000 as unemployment rates fell 20bps to 4.1 percent.

According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, payrolls continued to increase across hospitality, health care, government, social assistance, and construction.

Wage growth also came in stronger than expected, hitting 4% on an annualised basis and 0.4% on a monthly basis. This comes as average hourly earnings rose by 13 cents between August and September to $35.36 per hour.