Return to Insights

Closer to the end

The Fed hiked by 25 basis points, raising the benchmark Fed Funds Rate to 5.25% as expected.

While this came as no surprise, the accompanying statement was perhaps a failed attempt to convey hawkish intent. Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that, as inflation remains elevated and the labour market tight, further rate hikes are very much possible. Concerns over the US banking sector’s fragility were downplayed, with Powell asserting that the sector is ‘sound and resilient’.

Despite the hawkish spin, the market’s major take away was the acknowledgement that the US faces the prospect of a mild recession next year.

Subsequently, market expectations are little changed and the probability of a July rate cut remains over 40%.


The second major central bank rate announcement of the week is scheduled for 1315 today. Comments from ECB policy makers over recent weeks indicate that rates will need to rise further. Any surprises are likely to be to the upside, with the prospect of a 25 basis rate hike currently 100% priced in.

However, recent data has been broadly unsupportive of a 50 basis point hike and may encourage dovish tones in Lagarde’s monetary policy statement this afternoon.

Ready to talk FX?

Get in touch with one of our friendly and knowledgeable experts to see how FX strategy can drive commercial impact in your business.

Contact us


Find out how we have helped our clients meet their hedging requirements.

Protests in Georgia in Focus

Travel Tuesday, political turmoil in Georgia sees continued protests, application for an arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister and his Defence Minister announced by ICC Chief Prosecutor, and softer-than-expected German PPI.

Morning Update

Macro Monday, reports on helicopter crash that killed Iranian president, house prices continue to rise in the UK, new president sworn in for Taiwan, and what's happening this week.

Morning Update

Friday feeling, record highs for copper prices, Dow Jones surpasses 40,000 points for the first time in history, French unemployment holds at 7.5%, and today's focus on Eurozone inflation.

Morning Update

Though for Thursday, Xi visits Moscow to meet with Putin, Washington's tariffs have implications on China, latest inflation data from the US, and yesterday's attempted assassination on Robert Fico.

Inflation, Equities, and Billionaires

Word of the week Wednesday, US producer price index rises unexpectedly, yesterday's equity markets surpass previous peak, and proposed global minimum tax for the world's wealthiest billionaires.

UK Labour Data, Truth Social, and Ukrainian Grain in Focus 

Travel Tuesday, UK wage growth comes in line with previous month, rising UK unemployment, story emerges from US regarding Trump's social media company, grain shipping returns to pre-war levels for Ukraine, and Melinda Gates announces her leave from Gates Foundation.

Weekend Round-Up

Macro Monday, hopes to kickstart Chinese economy by issuing bonds, areas in Ukraine left devastated after renewed Russian attacks, and Trump promises tax cuts if he gets back into office.

GDP Indicates the UK’s Out of a Recession

Friday feeling, UK first quarter growth pulls UK out of recession, new tariffs on China from the Biden administration, a look at some all time best selling songs, and benchmark policy rate held by the BoE.

Find out more about our foreign exchange solutions
Contact us