Business Confidence Slips, According to BCC Report

The British Chamber of Commerce have released a report indicating that business confidence has fallen to its lowest level in two years, amid budget concerns.

This comes as the BBC’s report (conducted between 11th November and 9th December) found that 63% of businesses saw tax – including national insurance – as a concern. This represented the highest level since 2017, according to the survey.

Regarding cost pressures, over half of the businesses surveyed said that they foresee a rise in prices in the next three months, with many firms considering the rising costs of labour as the key driver.

Such considerations against the backdrop of existing economic conditions have led to nearly ¼ of businesses reducing investment over previous three months against just 20% of those that increased. Here, the report cited how 49% of firms expect to see their turnover increase in the next twelve months, having fallen from 56% in Q3. Meanwhile 32% of businesses expect profits to fall over the course of the next year.

Following the release of the report, the BCC’s Head of Research said that “this dataset is a clear signal that business sentiment has been significantly impacted following recent policy announcements, notably national insurance increases.”

This morning, figures from China indicate that the world’s second largest economy expanded at its greatest rate in more than half a year over the month of December.

This comes as the headline Caixin China General Services Business Activity rose to 52.2 in December, having come in at 51.5 in November. This represented a seven-month high and was driven by an increase in inflows of new business and rise in domestic demand.

Nonetheless, the data also suggested that levels of employment fell for the first time in four months as many businesses considered rising costs. Here, the report found that “Employment contracted fractionally as businesses worked to reduce costs while improving efficiency. Companies were cautious about hiring.”

Exports also fell with the reports citing “softening foreign interest”. Such a dynamic also fed into a dampening in business confidence which eased to its second lowest since March 2020.

Following the release of China’s PMIs, attention now turns to Eurozone figures released at 0900  ahead of the UK and US’ at 0930 and 1445, respectively.

This morning’s release comes against the backdrop of concerns being raised at the level of growth in the Chinese economy amid several socio-economic tremors being felt across the country, not least given its fragile property sector, high levels of municipal debt and weakened demand which has driven deflation.

As we looked at last month, such conditions have led to Beijing signalling that they would seek “A more proactive fiscal policy and an appropriately loose monetary policy…enhancing and refining the policy toolkit, strengthening extraordinary counter-cyclical adjustments.”