{"id":7648,"date":"2024-05-03T09:43:06","date_gmt":"2024-05-03T08:43:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/test-hcfx.pantheonsite.io\/?p=7648"},"modified":"2024-05-03T09:43:06","modified_gmt":"2024-05-03T08:43:06","slug":"not-many-signs-of-doves","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hamiltoncourtfx.com\/it\/not-many-signs-of-doves\/","title":{"rendered":"Not Many Signs of Doves"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Friday Feeling<\/strong><\/h5>\n
Check out this week\u2019s playlist\u00a0here!<\/strong><\/a><\/h5>\n
She\u2019s Thunderstorms\u00a0<\/strong>\u2013 Arctic Monkeys<\/h5>\n
I Ain\u2019t Scared of Lightning\u00a0<\/strong>\u2013 Tom McRae<\/h5>\n
Why Does it Always Rain on Me?\u00a0<\/strong>\u2013 Travis<\/h5>\n
Wild World\u00a0<\/strong>\u2013 Cat Stevens<\/h5>\n
Six Days\u00a0<\/strong>\u2013 DJ Shadow<\/h5>\n<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n
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Another day, another central bank rolling back on rate cut expectations.<\/p>\n

A couple of members of the European Central Bank\u2019s governing council have spoken out, saying that rates are more likely to be cut three times this year instead of four. And that the bank won\u2019t be pre-committing to a rate path and instead will be acting on a meeting-to-meeting basis. The ECB has a particularly tricky job at this point because inflation in Europe at an aggregate level is high, but on a country-by-country basis it ranges from less than 1% to more than 7% \u2013 and yet there\u2019s only one interest rate to go around.<\/p>\n <\/div>\n

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After the Federal Reserve wasn\u2019t quite as hawkish as they could have been on Wednesday night, HSBC now thinks it\u2019s on for one cut this year and three cuts in 2025.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile gold is benefitting from the persistence of inflation, sitting above $2,300 at the moment and forecasts from Goldman Sachs that it will be at $2,700 by the end of the year.<\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n

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In France<\/h2>\n <\/div>\n
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President Emmanuel Macron has said that Europe should prepare to defend Ukraine by sending troops if Russia were to break through defensive lines. Mr Macron, speaking with the Economist, said \u201cIf Russia wins in Ukraine, there will be no security in Europe\u2026who can pretend that Russia will stop there? What security will there be for other neighbouring countries, Moldova, Romania, Poland, Lithuania and others?\u201d. His position is much more hawkish than other NATO members, with Germany ruling out putting any boots on the ground and the US even limiting the intelligence they\u2019ve sent to Ukraine, in order to play an \u2018arm\u2019s length\u2019 role on the battlefield.<\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n

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In the UK<\/h2>\n <\/div>\n
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The prime minister has his other battles on his hands at the moment and early signs from the local elections aren\u2019t boding well. Every commentator is keen to stress that it\u2019s still too early to tell if this trend will continue \u2013 as local councils ironically don\u2019t have the budgets now to pay people to count votes through the night \u2013 but the early picture is that Labour has picked up a couple of key Conservative strongholds and other parties are making gains at their expense too.<\/p>\n

Rishi Sunak will really be concerned about the mayoral elections in Birmingham and Tees Valley, where Andy Street and Ben Houchen are defending their seats. These should be won by the Conservatives \u2013 with Ben Houchen taking 72% of the vote when he won in 2021 and Andy Street being seen as very capable and happy to distance himself from his party \u2013 but if they aren\u2019t successful here, or the overall election result shows losses of more than 500 then we\u2019d imagine the no-confidence letter threshold is reached in pretty short order.<\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n

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In the States<\/h2>\n <\/div>\n
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The US has been repositioning military hardware in the Middle East, which has got the attention of the markets. According to the Wall Street Journal the Pentagon has shifted fighter jets and armed drones out of bases in the UAE and into Qatar. The move is geographically inconsequential, but it\u2019s being seen as material because the UAE told the US in February that it wouldn\u2019t allow the US to use its base in the country to carry out airstrikes in Yemen and Iraq. Moving the hardware to Qatar gets around this problem and will be noted by various actors in the region.<\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n

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Looking to Today<\/h2>\n <\/div>\n
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\u00a0It\u2019s been a public holiday in China and Japan today so the market is off to a slow start, but there are a couple of data points the market will be watching. The UK PMI reading for the services sector. It\u2019s expected to show strong growth, with a reading of 54.9. The US non-farm payrolls is forecast to print at 250,000 jobs created \u2013 this number has been regularly beaten of late, but then revised down the month after. It\u2019s hard to see much denting the strength of the dollar at the moment though!<\/p>\n

Have a great weekend.<\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Friday feeling, ECB rolls back on rate cut expectations, French President says Europe should prepare to defend Ukraine, Rishi Sunak faces local election results, repositioning of US military hardware, and what’s happening today.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":2016,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"rp-language":[16],"class_list":["post-7648","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-morning-updates","rp-language-en_gb"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/hamiltoncourtfx.com\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7648","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/hamiltoncourtfx.com\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/hamiltoncourtfx.com\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hamiltoncourtfx.com\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/15"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hamiltoncourtfx.com\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7648"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/hamiltoncourtfx.com\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7648\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7653,"href":"https:\/\/hamiltoncourtfx.com\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7648\/revisions\/7653"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hamiltoncourtfx.com\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2016"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/hamiltoncourtfx.com\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7648"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hamiltoncourtfx.com\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7648"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hamiltoncourtfx.com\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7648"},{"taxonomy":"rp-language","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hamiltoncourtfx.com\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/rp-language?post=7648"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}