Ritorna alle Analisi

Weekly Run Down

Brits are becoming used to spending more and getting less for it and are adjusting their shopping habits accordingly.

According to the British Retail Consortium, retail sales increased 5.2% in the year to April, which is about half the rate of inflation over the same period. The hospitality sector has shown tremendous resilience in the face of the challenges and expenditure in restaurants and bars increased by 4% last month – no doubt the Early May Bank Holiday and the bonus one we got yesterday will have got May’s numbers off to a strong start too. UK energy suppliers are being urged to renegotiate long term energy contracts with UK small businesses to help them avoid facing closure. The Federation for small businesses has called for action as thousands of UK businesses are stuck in multi year fixed energy contracts that were entered into when costs were spiraling in 2022.

Since then, wholesale gas prices have fallen by 80% and the government has also withdrawn its support packages – meaning companies are stuck paying more, without support whilst the open market is much better value. Suppliers offering fixed price contracts will almost certainly have gone and hedged their own exposure in the market, meaning that they might be reluctant to renegotiate for fear of facing losses themselves. The FT has the story: www.ft.com/content/621f4906-18d2-408c-9fdf-b667547be254

Across the Pond

The debt ceiling debate is once again dominating the news cycle, with Janet Yellen calling it a potential “economic catastrophe”. We don’t disagree with her at all, but the bipartisan game of chicken has been played so many times over the last decade or more that we’re fully expecting this to be ‘amicably’ resolved with a couple of concessions here and there – though both parties are miles apart on what they want in exchange for signing off an increase in the credit limit. Reuters is reporting that Ms Yellen has resorted to calling CEO’s directly and warning them of the “dangerous consequences of the current brinksmanship” probably in the hope that they in turn can pick up the phone and provide a ‘non-political’ intervention to their state legislators and try and get common sense to prevail. The debt ceiling is likely to be hit in the first week of June, so the countdown begins (again). 

The rescue of another failed bank in the US has prompted the G7 to think about a rapid response plan to future failings – or perceived failings that then in turn become a self-fulfilling prophecy. The plans would involve more focus on mid-sized banks, that have been benefactors of deregulation in recent years and would require them to hold more capital and more deposit insurance. The G7 finance ministers are meeting later this week in Japan, ahead of the main G7 meeting which takes place next week. Nikkei has the story:  www.asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/G-7-in-Japan/G-7-eyes-responses-for-rapid-Silicon-Valley-Bank-type-failures 


Looking ahead; the week’s data calendar isn’t too action packed, with the highlights being US inflation on Wednesday, US jobless claims on Thursday and UK GDP from Q1 on Friday. US payrolls numbers that came out on Friday beat expectations by a reasonable margin and have poured a bit of fuel into the debate as to whether the Federal Reserve can indeed pause their rate rise cycle and ‘wait it out’ if the economy is continuing to grow, as such we’d expect both inflation and jobless numbers to be hot topics of conversation amongst investors. Have a great week.


Per ottenere una copia in PDF di questo articolo, contattaci.


Analisi di mercato

Find out how we have helped our clients meet their hedging requirements.

I mercati provano Nvidia

Gli utili boom della statunitense Nvidia, che segna il +256%: il CEO Huang ha affermato che la domanda di componenti per l’intelligenza artificiale ha raggiunto il suo punto critico...

La Von der Leyen in corsa

Dopo una riunione dei vertici del partito a Berlino, la CDU offre il palco alla Presidente della Commissione UE Ursula von der Leyen per formalizzare la corsa al secondo mandato...

Lunedì di festa negli States

L'indice dei prezzi alla produzione negli Stati Uniti è aumentato dello 0.9% su base annua a gennaio, secondo i dati pubblicati venerdì dal Bureau of Labor Statistics...

Deludono le vendite al dettaglio statunitensi

Giornata di conferenze ieri in Europa, in cui il Presidente della BCE ha esordito con dei messaggi piuttosto hawkish...

La lunga strada verso il 2%

Mentre Zelensky è indaffarato nella ricerca di circa un milione "perduto" nei meandri di Kiev, il Portavoce del Cremlino ha risposto agli avvertimenti europei affermando come qualsiasi messaggio contro la narrativa russa sia da considerare una mera propaganda occidentale...

La BoE spera nel mercato del lavoro

In Europa alcuni funzionari della BCE si sono dimostrati dovish, ponendo le basi per un taglio dei tassi. Questo e la scarsità del calendario economico dell'Eurozona fanno sì che gli operatori si concentrino sui discorsi della scorsa settimana e sull'importante rapporto sull'inflazione statunitense di martedì...

La FED mantiene la rotta

Le vendite al dettaglio italiane nel mese di dicembre hanno registrato un valore inferiore alle aspettative, marcando -0.1% vs 0.2% atteso...

La BoE ferma al 5.25%

Il CPI dell'Eurozona è aumentato ad un ritmo annuale del 2.8% a gennaio, in leggero rallentamento rispetto all'aumento del 2.9% di dicembre, secondo i dati ufficiali pubblicati da Eurostat giovedì...

Per saperne di più sulle nostre soluzioni Forex intelligenti