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Trump Convicted

Friday Feeling, Trump found guilty for falsifying business records, permission from the US for Ukraine to use missiles to strike in Russia, and pressure on the dollar as US GDP revised lower than estimated.

Friday Feeling
Check out this week’s playlist here!
Everybody’s Free (To Wear Sunscreen) – Baz Luhrmann
Sunny Afternoon – The Kinks
Manifesto – Roxy Music
Transatlantic Flight – Leif Vollebekk
Are You Gonna Go My Way – Lenny Kravitz

Trump Convicted

Donald Trump has been found guilty on all 34 counts for falsifying business records, marking the first time any sitting or former president has been criminally convicted.

The judgment follows six weeks of one of the most high-profile cases which has dominated headlines in the run up to the presidential election.

All of the felonies are classified as “E”, which while being the lowest in the New York still carry a maximum prison sentence of four years. Hence though Trump could face prison, probation or supervision, it is understood that a fine is more likely. Here, the Judge will consider Trumps age, his lack of any prior convictions but also his contravention of the Court’s gag order.

The conviction does not affect his ability to run for the Presidency again, and constitutional lawyers maintain that he could theoretically still run from the confines of prison. Either way, he could not overturn this conviction from the Oval Office himself as it’s a state case, rather than a federal case.

Attention now turns to the implications this could have in the race for the White House.

While Trump said from the court hallway that the ‘real verdict’ will come during the November election, a study from Bloomberg found that 53% of voters in swing states would refuse to vote for Trump if convicted.

Nonetheless, the former president is expected to appeal the conviction, possibly lengthening out the process for months.

Of course, Trump still faces three other ongoing criminal trails. This includes the case in Washington DC where the former president has been accused of conspiring to overturn the election in 2020 in addition his involvement on the 6 of January riots which saw the US houses of Congress broken into. Trump has also been charged in Florida, accused of mishandling classified documents in Mar-a-lago, in addition to Georgia for allegedly conspiring to overturn the election.

Attention now turns to his sentencing on 11 July.

US Authorise Ukrainian Use of Missiles in Russia

In Ukraine: The US have permitted the striking of targets inside Russia, with some US made weapons. The scope of the permission is pretty limited in that they can only hit targets that are striking, or preparing to strike Ukrainian forces, so there won’t be long range missile attacks on Russian cities, but it will allow for them to target troops that are massing just across the border near Kharkiv.

The decision aligns with calls from UK and European leaders that Ukraine should have the right to strike legitimate military targets inside Russia and though it is limited in scope, the door is now ajar, and we’d speculate that in time there could be some scope creep that could allow longer range missile attacks slightly further up the Russian military supply chain.

The lifting of the embargo is better late than never, but had this decision been taken a few weeks ago then Ukraine would have found themselves much less on the back foot than they currently are.

US GDP

US Q1 GDP was revised lower yesterday from the first estimate putting pressure on the dollar. With consumer spending showing signs of being more subdued, the latest data indicated that the US economy expanded 1.3% over Q1, some 30bps less than the first reading.

When looking at the data compared to the Q4 23, decelerations were seen in consumer spending, exports, and government spending. Nevertheless, an acceleration was seen in residential fixed investment.

Data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis also identified that real disposable personal income increased 1.9%, a considerable revision of 0.8 percentage points to the upside.

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