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Morning Updates

Dollar Index at 10-Month High as Yields on T-Notes Push Higher

Raising rates from Federal reserve, DXY appreciates to highest level, and average sick days on the rise for the UK

Morning Updates

Speculation Mounts Over HS2’s Second Leg

Breaking the second leg of HS2, release of UK GDP figures on Friday, and Financial Times suggest US are sending long-range missiles to Ukraine.

Morning Updates

Bank of England Hold Rates

Interest rates held by Bank of England, lower-than-expected UK retail sales, and contracting German PMIs.

Morning Updates

The Fed’s Hawkish Hold

Possibility for another Fed rate hike, today's Bank of England interest rate decision, and a look at ONS labour market data.

Morning Updates

UN Secretary-General Warns “Our World is Becoming Unhinged”

Warnings of greater risk from UN Secretary-General on the back of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, ease of inflation for the UK, and today's Fed interest rate decision.

Morning Updates

Biden to Hold Inaugural C5+US Summit

C5+US summit hosted by Biden, deal made with the US and Iran, and rising oil prices.

Morning Updates

DXY Edges Higher Ahead of Fed Rate Decision

US Dollar Index sees six-month highs, English councils struggling to meet financial liabilities, and potential for Brexit deal rewrite.

Morning Updates

ECB, US Retail Sales and Trouble on the Tracks for HS2

European Central Bank's tenth consecutive rate hike, US retail sales climb, and trouble for HS2 plans.

Morning Updates

European Union Launches Investigation into Beijing’s Financial Support for EV Industry

Possible trade war for Europe and China over the car making industry, IPO of British chip designer, and release of European Central Banks interest rate decision.

Morning Updates

UK Economic Output Slumps

UK economic output contracts, weather impacting markets, and release of US inflation figures.

Morning Updates

UK Wage Growth Maintained at Highest on Record

Record highs for UK wage growth, July's industrial action, rising UK unemployment, and bid to save Wilko fails.

Morning Updates

All Eyes on ECB’s Next Rate Decision

Market looks towards European Central Bank's next rate decision, inflation for China comes in later than expected, and insight from the Bank of England's senior economist.

Morning Updates

Markets Back to Business

Interest rate decisions, release of monthly job's report, Apple loses value, G20 summit in India, and market moves in the next few days.

Morning Updates

Bailey, PMIs and Polish Interest Rate Decision in Focus 

BoE governor speaks on yesterdays rate release, US PMIs and the markets reaction, surprise decisions made by the National Bank of Poland, and events happening today.

Morning Updates

Birmingham City Council, PMIs and Wildfires

Failure to meet financial liabilities for Birmingham City Council, tight monetary conditions showing impact on UK economy, and costs of European wildfires.

Morning Updates

All Eyes on PMIs

Release of Eurozone PMIs, fall in European equities, UK PMIs released, and slowing down of Asian economies.

Morning Updates

Monday Morning Update

Rising fear over low water levels, airport expansion turbulence, attacks on Odessa from Russia, and data for today.

WTFX

WTFX: Issue 4

With some excellent sporting events having entertained us this summer, we thought we'd take a look at the economics that underpin a gold medal. As well as this, we take a look at the world of video games - where the numbers are of a size that they'd make many a Hollywood film studio sit up and take notice.

Morning Updates

All Eyes on US Labour Market Data

Release of US labour market data, contraction of M4 money supply, and data releases today.

Morning Updates

Morning Update

More workers for the NHS, ADP employment comes in against expectations, and potential extended cuts for OPEC+.

Morning Updates

Equites Rally on US Jobs Data

Equity markets react to US jobs report, expansion of London's ULEZ area, and falling house sales reach decade lows.

Morning Updates

Weekend Summary

British Retail price survey, Michael Gove's ideas to boost house building, support for Ukraine, and some normality returning to markets.

Morning Updates

German Growth Stagnates

Stand still on German growth, Consumer confidence slips for GfK, and events happening today.

Morning Updates

Morning Update

Retreating UK PMIs, lower than expected US PMIs, Wagner mercenary leader dead, and what's happening today.

Morning Updates

PMIs in Focus

Contracting German PMIs, French PMIs also soften, and investors withdraw funds from Chinese equity market.

Morning Updates

BRICS Meet in Johannesburg

Potential expansion for BRICS, release of UK borrowing data, and high US yields.

Morning Updates

Monday Morning Update

People's Bank of China cuts loan prime rate, presidential debates skips out on presidential debates, German producer prices fall, and tomorrow's release of government borrowing figures.

Morning Updates

Retail and Gilts in Focus 

Wet weather causes UK retail sales to drop, surging yields on UK gilts, and potential buyers for Wilko.

Morning Updates

Fed Minutes in Focus

Minutes released from FOMC policy meeting, triple lock pensions, and UK retail sales released tomorrow.

Morning Updates

UK Inflation Eases as Markets Consider BoE’s Next Move

Markets consider Bank of England's next move, Amazon Prime Day sees splurged US spending, held interest rates by RBNZ, and easing of UK Retail Price Index.

Morning Updates

UK Wage Growth and Country Garden in Focus 

Highest UK wage growth on record, trouble for China's property market, unemployment above expectations in UK, and a rise in wage expectations.

Morning Updates

Monday Morning Update

Goldman Sachs look to cut rates next year, yields drop on Chinese governments bonds, and this weeks focus on UK inflation.

Morning Updates

UK Growth Higher-than-Expected, Though Forecasted Path Remains Sluggish

UK growth exceeds expectations, farmers urge for British food growth, US inflation softer than expected, and US PPI released today.

Morning Updates

Continental Gas Prices Surge

Surge in gas prices across the continent, drop in deposits at the Big Four, and looking towards the release of US inflation data.

Morning Updates

China Slips into Deflationary Territory

China's economy slowing down, windfall tax on banks' profit passed by Italian government, and what's happening to US CPI.

Morning Updates

Morning Update

UK national risk register published, high food bills continue, and easing of German inflation.

WTFX

WTFX: Issue 3

It's been an underwhelming summer, so we've taken that theme and run with it! This month we discuss an OBR report that didn't get the coverage it deserved, and take a look at the management and mismanagement of currency, with a focus on the Korean Won.

Morning Updates

BoE Rate Hike and US Labour Market in Focus 

Raised rates and inflation expectations from BoE, US labour market data release, and Wilko on brink of collapse.

Morning Updates

Bank of England Expected to Conduct 14th Consecutive Hike 

Monetary conditions continue to tighten, US credit rating downgraded, and US markets await labour market print.

Morning Updates

IMF Upwardly Revise Global Growth But Concerns Remain

Expanding global economy, decline of UK house prices, Trump faces federal charges, and weak US Manufacturing PMIs continue.

Morning Updates

Shop Price Inflation Falls But Retail Sector Remains Under Pressure

Fall in BRC's shop price index, 6,000 UK retail outlets lost, 2023 HSBC earnings, and rate held by RBA.

Morning Updates

Sunak Announces Increase to North Sea Licenses

Increased North sea licenses, PMI slips for Chinese manufacturing, large monthly gain for oil since January 2022, fall of German retail sales, and what's happening today.

Morning Updates

ECB Monetary Policy and US Growth in Focus

Yesterday afternoon, the European Central Bank met market expectations by raising interest rates 25bps. This brings the main refinancing rate to 4.25%, its highest level since October 2008 while the deposit facility rate now stands at 3.75%, matching the all-time high reached in 2001. US GDP figures for Q2 2023 surpassed expectations yesterday, hitting 2.4% – a considerable increase from Q1’s 2% print. This came well above the general market consensus of 1.8% and gives investors confidence over the resistance of the world’s largest economy, despite the tight fiscal and monetary conditions.

Morning Updates

FED, ECB and British Gas in Focus

Yesterday, the US federal reserve met expectations by raising rates 25bps, bringing the central bank’s benchmark target rate to 5.25%-5.5%. This marks the highest benchmark rate in 22 years, as policy makers continue to try to bring inflation back down to its 2% target, having decelerated to 3% last month.

Morning Updates

Fed Poised for 11th Consecutive Rate Hike

In July 2021, Powell attempted to assuage markets by maintaining that inflation was merely transitory. Two years later the Fed look set to raise rates by another 25bps to bring borrowing costs to their greatest level since January 2001.

Morning Updates

UK Govt Interest Payments Set to Be Highest in Developed World

Morning Updates

Morning Update

No party has managed to maintain a clear majority in yesterday’s Spanish legislative elections, with the Popular Party and Socialist Party looking like they will also lack the ability to form a collation, respectively.

Morning Updates

By-Elections Deliver Double Defeat for Conservative Party

Yesterday delivered a crushing blow to the Conservative party, with the incumbents losing two out of three seats as the electorate cast their votes in the latest by elections. We also look at ULEZ, UK Retail Sales, Consumer Confidence, and the next General Election.

Morning Updates

Morning Update

Gigafactory confirmed, UK by-elections, slowing eurozone inflation, and what's happening today.

Morning Updates

Inflation Eases as Markets Consider BoE’s Next Move

Low inflation levels, surprise Spanish elections, and easing of food inflation.

Morning Updates

Victoria Pulls out of Hosting Commonwealth Games

Doubt for the Commonwealth Games, warning of another energy crisis, Germany's car production slows, and YouGov poll shows Britons want to rejoin the EU.

Morning Updates

Monday Morning Update

Badenoch Signs CPTPP Agreement, though the economic benefits in terms of increasing output are (by the Government's own admission) minimal. This morning, we also look at Chinese growth figures and UK CPI, released later this week.

Morning Updates

Friday Morning Update

Office for budget responsibility comment on current UK debt and inflation, pay deal at Downing Street, and further fall of US PPI.

Morning Updates

UK Economy Shrinks Less-than-Expected over May

UK economy shrinks less than forecasted, US inflation slows, and further deficit for UK trade balance.

Morning Updates

All Eyes on Westminster and Whitehall Ahead of PRB Reports

Expected PRB reports put all eyes on Westminster and Whitehall, US inflation in focus, and Reserve Bank of New Zealand hold interest rates.

Morning Updates

UK Wage Growth Rises As Bailey and Hunt Call for Wage Restraint 

Wage growth goes beyond expectations, call for wage restraint, rise in UK unemployment, and Sweden joins NATO.

Morning Updates

Chinese Inflation Figures Raise Debate Over Beijing Stimulus

Inflation figures rise for China, US Non-Farm payrolls are weaker than expected, and falling global food prices.

Morning Updates

US Labour Market in Focus 

Surpassed expectations for US labour market, house prices in the UK continue to fall, and losses for the equity market.

Market Updates

GBPNOK – 6 July 2023

Morning Updates

Fed Minutes Show Divide

Policy makers divided, quarterly BCC survey, and a closer look at the Fed's John Williams.

Morning Updates

Morning Update

Record temperatures for June, Greece repays debt, and what is happening today.

Morning Updates

FCA Summon Banking Execs to Address Savings Rates

Saving rates to be addressed by Banking Execs, interest rates held by RBA, and US yield curve inversion hits deepest level.

Market Updates

Third Day of ECB Symposium Update

Central Bank Policy Makers Meet in Sintra, Portugal for Third Day of ECB Symposium & Powell, Bailey, Ueda and Lagarde Share Centre Stage To Discuss Financial Conditions

Morning Updates

Monday Morning Update

Pakistan receive economic lifeline from IMF, sliding business confidence, and Swiss rate of inflation falls.

WTFX

WTFX: Issue 2

Catch up on some interesting topics that caught our attention but didn't get discussed in our daily commentaries. An investigation into international trade and reshoring, a closer look at the effect of the supply chain crisis on the UK semiconductor industry, and are genetically modified crops the way forward, or are they causing more problems than they solve?

Morning Updates

At The Turn of ’23

We’re at the halfway stage for 2023 already and it’s been a busy year thus far, particularly if you’re Andrew Bailey.

Morning Updates

Thames Water in the Sewer

Thames Water make front page news and financial conditions discussions by Central Bank Policy Makers.

Morning Updates

Morning Update

Acceleration of global deforestation, ECB Symposium in Sintra, and population of India exceeds that of China.

Morning Updates

Morning Update

European Central Bank's forum, prices ease in shops for a second month, return scheme for single-use drinks containers, and concerns on supply side for gas futures rise.

Morning Updates

Monday Morning Update

Renewal of inflation taming plan by UK government, markets weigh on release of Canadian inflation figures tomorrow, and looking at the week ahead.

Morning Updates

Morning Update

Bank of England raise rates, UK retail sales rise higher than market expectations, and energy prices continue to fall across Europe.

Morning Updates

Powell’s Testimony and BoE Rate Decision in Focus 

Fed chair indicates further rate hikes are favourable, pressure on the monetary policy committee, and Norges Bank make interest rate decisions.

Morning Updates

UK Core Inflation Hits Highest Level Since 1992 as Markets Upwardly Revise BoE Rate Expectations

This morning, UK inflation surpassed expectations as markets continue to weigh on the Bank of England’s monetary policy moving forward.

Morning Updates

Morning Round-Up

UK yield, German producer price index has fallen, America and China look to ease tensions and record deals for IndiGo and Airbus.

Morning Updates

Monday Morning Update 

Starmer makes bold announcements, Bank of England interest rate decisions, and rising borrowing rates.

Morning Updates

ECB Rate Hike in Focus

Yesterday the ECB met market expectations by raising their interest rates by 25bps.

Morning Updates

Fed ‘Skip’ But Hawkish Dot Plot Sees Markets Upwardly Revise Rate Expectations

Yesterday evening, the Federal reserve met market expectations by holding their benchmark rate. This represented the first time that the FOMC opted to keep rates unchanged in the last ten meetings spanning fifteen months, as they signalled a ‘skip’ to their monetary tightening cycle.

Morning Updates

Gilt Yields Rise as Investors Weigh on UK Labour Market

Following a hotter-than-expected UK labour market print yesterday, yields on the UK 2-year surpassed 4.89% as they hit their highest levels since the GFC.

Morning Updates

UK Labour Market and US Inflation in Focus

With unemployment levels continuing to point to a tight labour market, UK wage growth rose above expectations as investors consider the inflationary impact on the wider economy. Average earnings excluding bonuses rose from 6.8% to 7.2%, surpassing forecasts of 6.9%. Similarly, average earnings including bonuses rose from 6.1% to 6.5% also beating expectations of 6.1%.

Morning Updates

Monday Morning Round-up

Today will see the Parliamentary Privileges Committee meet in Westminster to decide on when to publish their report into whether former PM Boris Johnson mislead the House of Commons.

Market Updates

GBPZAR – 9 June 2023

Morning Updates

Hopes of Anglo-US Trade Deal Dashed as Biden and Sunak Settle on ‘Atlantic Declaration’

Yesterday, President Joe Biden and Prime Minister Rishi Sunak unveiled their “Atlantic Declaration” which seeks to strengthen the countries economic ties, though the declaration merely stands in the place of a comprehensive trade agreement.

Market Updates

USDCAD – 7 June 2023

Market Updates

USDINR – 7 June 2023

Morning Updates

JP Morgan’s Opinion in Focus

JP Morgan have made some interesting points in the last couple of days: speaking about the Fed meeting next week, they’re concerned that if the FOMC do press the pause button, but were then forced to resume rate hikes either in July, or after the summer, in the face of stubborn inflation, what would this do to risk appetite in the market, because it might be a bit unnerving to see that the central bank hasn’t got a firm grasp on the problem.

Morning Updates

Halifax Index: UK House Prices Fall for First Time Since 2012

According to the Halifax house price index, the price of residential property fell for the first time since 2012. The 1% depreciation between May 2022 and May 2023 came in line with expectations as analysts assess the impact of higher interest rates on households.

Morning Updates

Nova Khakovka Dam Destroyed in Kherson, Ukraine

The vast Ukrainian Nova Khakovka Dam has been destroyed in the Russian occupied region of Kherson, Ukraine releasing a torrent of water as concerns for residents and nuclear power facilities up and downstream grows.

Morning Updates

Think Tank Seeks Backing for UBI Trial

Plans have been unveiled for a Universal Basic Income (UBI) trial in the UK, with the think tank Autonomy currently seeking financial backing. It is hoped that the trial will span over two years with participants receiving £1,600 each month and being in control of how they spend or save the funds.

WTFX

WTFX: Issue 1

We're back! This first issue covers world affairs that we haven't seen heavily covered in elsewhere, such as Turkey's presidential elections, a deep dive into China's debt crisis, and some insight on the ever-changing geopolitical landscape of the Central Asian Republics. Flip through to read more...

Morning Updates

All Eyes on US Labour Market Data

Today all eyes are on US labour market data where the markets will be looking to gain an insight into the health of the US economy and the extent to which the jobs market is feeding into inflationary pressures ahead of the Fed’s meeting on 12 June.

Morning Updates

House Passes Debt Ceiling Bill

Last night, the House comfortably passed the debt ceiling bill in arguably the most important stage in the process to ensure that the world’s largest economy averts a technical default. The House of Representatives cleared the Fiscal Responsibility Act by 314-117, the bipartisan deal assembled by President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy.

Morning Updates

Debt Ceiling Agreement to go to House Vote

Tonight, congress will vote on the bill agreed by President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, as the US tries to avert X-date by raising the debt ceiling. According to Reuters, “the deal caps federal spending and forces more poor people to work for food aid, concessions that Democrats hate. But it also preserves much of Biden's Inflation Reduction Act and punts the next debt ceiling showdown into 2025, which Republicans hate.”

Market Updates

Core, Blimey!

As markets weigh on the Bank of England’s interest rate decision on 22 June, this morning’s hotter-than-expected inflation print has seen investors upwardly revise rate hike expectations. Indeed, market reaction to this morning’s print is a further reaffirmation that inflation continues to be the hottest topic of conversation.

Morning Updates

Erdogan Secures Another Five Years as Lira Plummets to Record Lows

The incumbent Recep Tayyip Erdogan has secured another five years as Turkey’s president following a run-off election which saw him take 52% of the votes, against Kemal Kilicdaroglu’s 48%

Morning Updates

UK Retail Sales Rise

UK retail sales rose higher-than-expected this morning having increased 0.5% on a month-on-month basis for April. This beat market expectations of a 0.3% rise and came after a 1.2% fall last month.

Morning Updates

Germany Enters Technical Recession

The latest data from Germany indicates that their economy contracted 0.3% during the first quarter of 2023. Given that this follows a contraction of 0.5% seen over Q4 2022, Europe’s largest economy is now in a technical recession.

Morning Updates

Core Inflation Surges to Highest Level Since 1992

Core inflation has risen to its highest level since March 1992, following a surge which saw the index rise from 6.2% in March to 6.8% in April.

Morning Updates

Biden and McCarthy Hold Debt Ceiling Talks

As the prospect of X-date grows ever closer, yesterday President Joe Biden and House Speaker, Kevin McCarthy held a “productive” meeting to discuss America’s debt ceiling crisis, though no agreement has been reached.

Morning Updates

Mitsotakis’ New Democracy Party Falls Short of Majority in Greek Elections 

The incumbent Greek prime minister, Kyriakos Mitsotakis and his centre-right New Democracy party have secured the largest share of the votes in the general election but has fallen just shy of a simple majority.

Morning Updates

All Eyes on G7

The G7 summit is taking place this weekend, in Hiroshima. The agenda will be packed and there’s almost certainly going to be more subjects that there are agreements.

Morning Updates

Bailey Expresses Concern with Wage-Price Spiral

Yesterday, the BoE’s Governor Andrew Bailey delivered a speech to British Chambers of Commerce which focused on inflation, wage growth and the labour market.

Morning Updates

Morning Update

Stellantis isn’t necessarily a household name, but their brands are: The owner of Jeep, Alfa Romeo, Vauxhall, Fiat and others is one of the world’s largest automobile manufacturers

Morning Updates

Brussels Upwardly Revises EU Growth Expectations

European Commission upwardly revises their growth forecasts for the EU

Morning Updates

Turkey Looks Set for Run-Off in Presidential Elections

There's the prospect of a second round for Turkey's presidential election.

Morning Updates

Turkey Looks for Change

The BoE did as expected yesterday and raised rates to 4.5%, which the market took fully in its stride.

Morning Updates

All eyes on US inflation

All eyes were on US inflation yesterday, which came out exactly in line with expectations and the same as it was last month…

Morning Updates

Weekly Run Down

Brits are becoming used to spending more and getting less for it and are adjusting their shopping habits accordingly.

Morning Updates

Bloomberg reports a trend for more temporary and contract workers

Bloomberg is reporting a trend amongst UK businesses to employ temporary and contract workers, rather than full time employees, amidst economic uncertainty and increasing wage costs.

Morning Updates

Closer to the end

The Fed hiked by 25 basis points, raising the benchmark Fed Funds Rate to 5.25% as expected.

Morning Updates

Pause, Pivot, Hike

This evening’s US interest rate announcement remains the key event risk for this week.

Morning Updates

BoE’s Huw Pill: Households “Need to Accept That They’re Worse Off”

Yesterday, the Bank of England’s chief economist maintained that British households must accept that they’re worse and stop pushing for higher pay as real wages fall at their fastest rates for 20 years.

Morning Updates

UK Budget Deficit in Focus

UK Budget Deficit Soars Over March

Morning Updates

Morning Update

Credit Suisse Results Show Bank Suffered $69bn in Outflows over Q1

Morning Updates

UK Retail Sales, US Labour Market and Inflation Driven Disputes

Retail Sales Fall as ONS Cites Poor Weather and Shortages

Morning Updates

Markets Weigh on Further Tightening from BoE

As markets digested UK CPI coming in hotter-than-expected and remaining in double digits, investors upwardly revised their rate hike expectations from the Bank of England.

Morning Updates

UK Headline CPI Remains in Double Digits

This morning has seen the UK’s headline CPI inflation figures remain in double digits, against estimates that it would drop into single digits for the first time since August 2022.

Morning Updates

UK Wage Growth Rises Above Forecasts As Unemployment Levels Increase

UK Wage Growth Rises Above Forecasts

Morning Updates

Survey Sees Rise in CFO Optimism

This morning, the release of Deloitte’s quarterly CFO Survey suggests that business sentiment has improved significantly.

Morning Updates

Biden Arrives in Northern Ireland

Yesterday evening, the US president arrived in Belfast for a four-day visit to the Island of Ireland.

Morning Updates

Morning Update

The Telegraph is leading with an article that Downing Street is planning an early election in the Autumn of 2024 as the party tries to reduce its gap in the polls and boost its chances of another term.

Morning Updates

Markets Weigh on Weaker-Than-Expected US Data

Weaker-Than-Expected US Data Sees Equities Close Lower

Morning Updates

Morning Update

Finland Joins Nato

Morning Updates

AI, NATO, US GDP and FPC Review in Focus

AI Could Replace 300,000,000 Jobs, Goldman Sachs Report Argues

Morning Updates

Morning Update

The UK’s largest asset manager, Legal and General have emphasised that businesses are insufficiently pricing in climate change associated risks.

Morning Updates

BRC Inflation Index Hits Highest Level Since Records Began

BRC Inflation Index Hits Highest Level Since Records Began

Morning Updates

All Eyes on Global Banking Sector as First Citizens Bank Buys SVB

First Citizens Buys SVB, As Markets Digest Choppy Session for Deutsche Bank on Friday.

Market Updates

UK GDP, SVB & Non-Farms in Focus

This morning UK GDP has come in higher-than-expected hitting month-on-month growth of 0.3% for January, against forecasts of 0.1%.

Market Updates

Bank of Canada Leaves Rates Unchanged

Yesterday, the Bank of Canada met market expectations by leaving rates unchanged at 4.5%.

Market Updates

Mann and Powell

Mann and Powell: Markets Digest Comments Both Sides of the Pond

Morning Updates

Morning Update

This morning saw the Reserve Bank of Australia raise rates by a further 25bpts, bringing the base rate to 3.6% after ten consecutive rate hikes.

Morning Updates

Morning Update

Kaja Kallas wins Second Term

Morning Updates

Morning Update

Musk Fails to Impress Investors in Texian Presentation

Market Updates

Banks’​ Net Interest Income, Supermarket Shortages and T-notes In Focus

Highstreet Banks See Net Interest Income Soar

Market Updates

Windsor Framework: An End in Sight to the Long Walk?

After months of political back and forth between Westminster, Brussels and Stormont, yesterday saw Rishi Sunak and Ursula von der Leyen agree on amendments to the Northern Ireland protocol as the two leaders met in Windsor.

Market Updates

NI Protocol and Dollar Index in Focus

DXY Rises To Seven Week High