Hopes of Anglo-US Trade Deal Dashed as Biden and Sunak Settle on ‘Atlantic Declaration’
Yesterday, President Joe Biden and Prime Minister Rishi Sunak unveiled their “Atlantic Declaration” which seeks to strengthen the countries economic ties, though the declaration merely stands in the place of a comprehensive trade agreement.
While the declaration looks at transatlantic trade generally, it specifically focuses on areas including defence, green energy, nuclear materials and minerals. For example, UK electric car manufactures may receive access to American green tax credits and subsidies.
The declaration also aims to secure trade deals between the US and UK which enhance supply chains and reduce reliance on China. According to the FT, Biden also “committed to ask Congress to approve the UK as a “domestic source” under US defence procurement
laws, which British officials claimed will allow speedier and more effective co-operation on new military technology.”
As we wrote about earlier, the FT citied a No.10 spokesperson last week who said that “the UK was no longer seeking a trade deal with the US.” This comes seven years after Barack
Obama warned Britons that the UK would be at the “back of the queue” in any trade deal with the US if the country chose to leave the EU. Such comments and yesterday’s declaration suggest that while the two countries will work closely together, negotiations to try to arrange a deal (which started in 2020) have failed.
Reaction to the declaration has been mixed, with for example the BCC saying that it was “an important milestone” while the BritishAmerican Business group said that it demonstrated “intent rather than actual agreement” on trade.
Trump Indicted
In the latest developments over Donald Trump’s handing of classified documents, the former president has been indicted by a federal court According to Trump’s legal team, headed by his attorney Jim Trusty, the charges include conspiracy, obstruction of justice, false statements, and illegally retaining classified documents under the Espionage Act, though the charges have not been made public. This follows the FBI seizing around 11,000 documents from Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort of which 100 were classified and marked as top secret. According to US law, it is illegal for any federal officials to remove classified documents and keep them at an unauthorised location.
While this is his second indictment, it is the first federal one and indeed the first time a former President has ever received a feral indictment. Given that Trump is currently campaigning for the 2024 Presidential election, this will no doubt continue to dominate headlines especially since some legal experts say that this indictment will not bar him from running for office.
Earlier this year, Trump became the first former president to be charged in a criminal case after he committed 34 counts of falsifying business records over a hush-money payments to Stormy Daniels.
Choppy Session for Oil After Claims of US-Iran Deal Are Denied
Yesterday, oil markets reacted to the now denied claims that the US and Iran were approaching an interim nuclear deal which could have increased oil supplies. Both the US and Iran have since denied that any such deal is near completion. A spokesperson for the Whitehouse since said that “this report is false and misleading”. Oil prices recovered following the White House’s statement following a 4.8% dpb decline.
WTI crude futures are now trading more or less flat on the day at around $71.2 dpb as they are on track for the second consecutive week of decline.
As we looked at earlier this week, oil prices rose on Monday after OPEC+ delegates met for their latest meeting. With Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman saying, “will do whatever is necessary to bring stability to this market” it was announced that Saudi Arabia will now enact another cut of 1 million bpd in July. This move will see Saudi oil production fall to its lowest level in several years (around 9m bpd), though their decision came in contrast to Russia and the UAE which will not cut production.
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WTFX: Issue 5
A special edition on the United Nations as this month saw delegates from around the world meet for the General Assembly. Here is your depth analysis on the geo-political uncertainty that continues to make headlines.
UK GDP, Household Incomes, and Eurozone Inflation
Discussion UK growth figures, increase of real disposable incomes, and release of eurozone inflation date.
Government Borrowing Under the Microscope
Estimates of government borrowing exceeding forecasts, release of US GDP figures, and rise in Australian CPI ahead of rate decision.
German Confidence Sinks as Propensity to Save Rises
Consumer confidence weakens for Germany, UK regulators approve Equinor developments, and today's data.
Dollar Index at 10-Month High as Yields on T-Notes Push Higher
Raising rates from Federal reserve, DXY appreciates to highest level, and average sick days on the rise for the UK
Speculation Mounts Over HS2’s Second Leg
Breaking the second leg of HS2, release of UK GDP figures on Friday, and Financial Times suggest US are sending long-range missiles to Ukraine.
Bank of England Hold Rates
Interest rates held by Bank of England, lower-than-expected UK retail sales, and contracting German PMIs.
The Fed’s Hawkish Hold
Possibility for another Fed rate hike, today's Bank of England interest rate decision, and a look at ONS labour market data.
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