{"id":962,"date":"2023-05-11T08:57:11","date_gmt":"2023-05-11T07:57:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hcfx.sofyma.com\/?p=962"},"modified":"2023-05-11T16:19:11","modified_gmt":"2023-05-11T15:19:11","slug":"all-eyes-on-us-inflation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hamiltoncourtfx.com\/es\/all-eyes-on-us-inflation\/","title":{"rendered":"All eyes on US inflation"},"content":{"rendered":"
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This might seem like a non-event, but it will certainly be giving rise to some head scratching about just where prices are heading, as a year\u2019s worth of rate hikes may have steadied the ship, but there\u2019s still no firm sign that inflation is under control. The Fed\u2019s plan to pause the current rate rise cycle is probably still the right one, but there will be a lot fewer people willing to call this the top of the hiking cycle. The pause is likely to mean the Fed won\u2019t take any monetary policy action now until the autumn, with June and July\u2019s meetings an opportunity to sit back and observe, whilst there is no meeting in August, means that September 20th\u00a0is the next big date \u2013 though no doubt we\u2019ll hear a lot from Fed members trying to keep markets well informed in the interim.<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n
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We heard a lot from Donald Trump last night on a 90-minute interview with his arch nemesis CNN! The interview brought back all sorts of memories of an openly combative era that we\u2019d hoped had passed and was a clear reminder of what we might be returning to in 2025! The interview was pretty wide ranging, but a pertinent point to pick upon was The Donald\u2019s take on the debt ceiling \u2013 \u201cI say to the Republicans out there, congressmen, senators, if they don\u2019t give you massive cuts, you\u2019re gonna have to default\u201d. His view is that a default is inevitable one day, so they might as well press hard for their demands in the knowledge that<\/p>\n <\/div>\n

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Democrats will likely cave to them, but in any case, nobody knows how bad a default would be \u201cit could be really bad, it could be maybe nothing, maybe it\u2019s a bad week, or a bad day, who knows?\u201d (But if it happens when you\u2019re not in power, or even in opposition, what\u2019s your personal downside?!). His words will serve to galvanise the Republicans that do want to take a firmer line on this and could mean that what we said at the beginning of the week wasn\u2019t likely to amount to much, might amount to a lot.<\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n

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On this side of the Pond<\/h2>\n <\/div>\n
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The UK government has rolled back the pledge to revoke all EU laws by the end of the year. The policy, which would have seen a legislative bonfire of 4,000 pieces of EU law has been watered down considerably, with plans now to identify 600 laws to be revoked. The sunset clause had been met with apprehension by businesses and concern from opposition benches that it would then allow ministers to replace laws as they saw fit, which may weaken regulation overall. The government\u2019s take is that it is better to slow down the expiry and work through a process that allows meaningful reform, rather than rush it and focus on reducing legal risk. Not everyone is OK with it though; Jacob Rees-Mogg tweeted \u201cregrettably the Prime Minister has shredded his own promise rather than EU laws\u201d.<\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n

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It’s the Bank of England\u2019s turn to decide on interest rates today and expectations are for another 0.25% increase, taking us to 4.5%. The Bank\u2019s most recent forecast sees inflation at the end of the year below 4%, but that is being contradicted by the NIESR, who think it will be at 5.4% by the end of 2023 and not back to the Bank of England\u2019s 2% target until late \u201925. A rate rise today is almost completely priced in and markets still expect more of the same until we get to, or above, a five percent base rate. As per the US\u2019 conundrum, it may be that inflation remains stubbornly high for longer than expected, despite the recent fast falls in energy prices. As a guide, Rishi Sunak\u2019s pledge to halve inflation in 2023 would mean getting the number at or below 4.5% by December.<\/p>\n <\/div>\n

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In company news: Microsoft won\u2019t be giving pay rises this year as it recognises that \u201cnavigating both a dynamic economic environment and a major platform shift requires us to make critical decisions in how we invest in our people, our business and our future\u201d. The major platform shift being referred to is doubling down on AI and the economic uncertainties are clear to most \u2013 however, two weeks ago they did announce $53 billion in quarterly revenues and $18 billion of net income a couple of weeks ago, which led to a big jump in the share price, so we don\u2019t imagine this will have gone down brilliantly with employees.<\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

All eyes were on US inflation yesterday, which came out exactly in line with expectations and the same as it was last month\u2026<\/p>","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":963,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"rp-language":[16],"class_list":["post-962","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-morning-updates","rp-language-en_gb"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/hamiltoncourtfx.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/962","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/hamiltoncourtfx.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/hamiltoncourtfx.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hamiltoncourtfx.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/15"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hamiltoncourtfx.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=962"}],"version-history":[{"count":8,"href":"https:\/\/hamiltoncourtfx.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/962\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":971,"href":"https:\/\/hamiltoncourtfx.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/962\/revisions\/971"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hamiltoncourtfx.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/963"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/hamiltoncourtfx.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=962"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hamiltoncourtfx.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=962"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hamiltoncourtfx.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=962"},{"taxonomy":"rp-language","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hamiltoncourtfx.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/rp-language?post=962"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}