{"id":8514,"date":"2024-07-01T08:56:57","date_gmt":"2024-07-01T07:56:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hamiltoncourtfx.com\/?p=8514"},"modified":"2024-07-01T08:56:57","modified_gmt":"2024-07-01T07:56:57","slug":"well-start-with-france","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hamiltoncourtfx.com\/es\/well-start-with-france\/","title":{"rendered":"We\u2019ll start with France…"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Macro Monday<\/strong><\/h5>\n
The total value of the England football team is \u00a31.06 billion. The total value of Slovakia’s team is \u00a3130 million – and it took until the 95th minute for that \u00a3930m difference to pay off!<\/h5>\n<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n
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We\u2019ll start with France…<\/h2>\n <\/div>\n
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…<\/b>where Marine Le Pen\u2019s National Rally party won 34% of the votes cast in yesterday\u2019s first round of elections. As has been the trend in recent years, France is becoming a nation divided, with the far right taking the top spot and the left-wing alliance coming in second. Macron\u2019s centrist alliance trailed a pretty distant third.<\/p>\n

With such a majority in the first round, pollsters are understandably predicting a win and a big majority for Le Pen in the second-round next weekend. However, there are doubts about whether National Rally will win enough seats for an outright majority. On the back of this, markets have set an upbeat tone as we go into this trading week, with equity futures pointing higher, the euro trading relatively strongly, and French bond yields dropping slightly.<\/p>\n

This reaction will be a welcome relief for the European establishment, which over the last couple of weeks has seen French government debt look more like that of Greece and Spain, and the euro had been on the ropes since Macron called the snap election. The less likely scenario of an outright majority means that any coalition, though led by National Rally, will have some fiscal constraints placed on them and won\u2019t be able to go straight down the path of \u2018Trussonomics,\u2019 which could well be the plan if they do win more than 289 seats next weekend.<\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n

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Across the Pond<\/h2>\n <\/div>\n
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Joe Biden has been in talks with his family over the weekend, working out what\u2019s next after a comprehensively terrible performance in the head-to-head debate against Trump last week.<\/p>\n

There are three options for him really \u2013 come out swinging, go to ground and hope Trump implodes all by himself, or bow out gracefully and let a newer (read: younger) breed of Democrat go up against Trump.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s only really Jill Biden that Joe will listen to and it\u2019s not entirely clear how we\u2019d know which course of action he\u2019d take. The Democratic National Convention is being held in mid-August, which is likely where any successor would be chosen. Betting odds have now narrowed massively, with Gavin Newsom, the governor of California being the frontrunner, with Kamala Harris in the mix too, and a surprising long shot is Michelle Obama.<\/p>\n

We wait\u2026<\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n

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In the UK<\/h2>\n <\/div>\n
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The CBI has said that if the winner of this week\u2019s general election were to put net zero at the heart of their strategy, the payoff could be a \u00a357bn economic boost by 2030.<\/p>\n

The CEO of the Confederation for British Industry is set to speak at a conference today, where she will slam leaders of both parties for their deafening silence on climate issues throughout this election campaign, saying that \u201cthe next government has got to be loud and proud in making green growth part of a new investor pitch for Brand Britain.\u201d<\/p>\n

This is a good point to make, as the sector grew by 9% last year, to \u00a374bn, whilst the wider economy stood completely still.<\/p>\n

It might be that Labour does have a plan for climate change (and maybe for closer ties with Europe) but isn\u2019t ready to put that in their marketing material for fear of giving the opposition an anchor issue to go after.<\/p>\n

Anecdotally, I met my Labour candidate at the weekend and in a 15-minute grilling, I couldn\u2019t get him to be drawn on anything more granular than \u201cgetting the economy going\u201d and having a \u201cfully costed manifesto\u201d \u2013 so he gets an A* for toeing the party line!<\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n

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Looking to this week<\/h2>\n <\/div>\n
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It\u2019s the first week of a new month, so data will be printed thick and fast. That said, with the UK and French elections taking centre stage on this side of the Pond, we\u2019ll defer to US data to drive any meaningful impact on the market \u2013 and to that, we\u2019d look at Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday, though with it being Independence Day on Thursday, we can\u2019t imagine many Americans sitting at their desks on Friday eagerly awaiting the number!<\/p>\n

Have a great week.<\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Macro Monday, a focus on France and their elections, aftermath of the Trump-Biden debate, climate change ideas for new UK government, and what’s happening this week.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":1205,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"rp-language":[16],"class_list":["post-8514","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-morning-updates","rp-language-en_gb"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/hamiltoncourtfx.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8514","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/hamiltoncourtfx.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/hamiltoncourtfx.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hamiltoncourtfx.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/15"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hamiltoncourtfx.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8514"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/hamiltoncourtfx.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8514\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hamiltoncourtfx.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1205"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/hamiltoncourtfx.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8514"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hamiltoncourtfx.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8514"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hamiltoncourtfx.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8514"},{"taxonomy":"rp-language","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hamiltoncourtfx.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/rp-language?post=8514"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}