{"id":4075,"date":"2023-10-27T09:29:57","date_gmt":"2023-10-27T08:29:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hcfx.sofyma.com\/?p=4075"},"modified":"2023-10-27T09:29:58","modified_gmt":"2023-10-27T08:29:58","slug":"disunity-in-brussels-us-strikes-us-gdp-and-ecb-rate-decision-in-focus","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hamiltoncourtfx.com\/es\/disunity-in-brussels-us-strikes-us-gdp-and-ecb-rate-decision-in-focus\/","title":{"rendered":"Disunity in Brussels, US Strikes, US GDP and ECB Rate Decision in Focus"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Disunity in Brussels Grows over Military Support to Ukraine<\/h2>\n <\/div>\n
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In the latest blow to the Ukrainian war effort Slovakia\u2019s Prime Minister Robert Fico has announced that that the country will no longer be providing military aid to Kyiv. This will come as deeply disappointing to Ukraine, which has benefited from Slovakia\u2019s provisions of materiel including an S-300 air defence system and other items including de-mining vehicles. Fico\u2019s move is indicative of a recent shift seen from some of Europe\u2019s hard-right against supplying military aid to Ukraine. It also follows the election of Louisianan Republican Mike Johnson as the House speaker in the US earlier this week, who said that while he will support further funding going to Israel, he is against further American assistance to Ukraine.<\/p>\n

Fico\u2019s announcement, which came at yesterday\u2019s EU summit, also involved him saying that he would not back fresh sanctions on Russia. As such, geopolitical fault lines are increasingly manifesting themselves under Brussels, shaking their ability to appear as a unified force in the Russian-Ukraine conflict. Leading the tremors has been Viktor Orb\u00e1n, who yesterday stated that EU’s strategy on Ukraine ‘has failed’. He went further to maintain that Hungarian tax receipts ought not go to support a failing strategy. Orb\u00e1n recently met with Vladimir Putin, marking the first time any EU leader has met the Russian president since the ICC put an arrest warrant on him.<\/p>\n

The bloc\u2019s military support for Ukraine relies on a fund managed by the Brussels and relies on unanimous support from EU member states to increase it. In February, the EU increased support to this fund, however Hungary have since vetoed further top-ups.<\/p>\n

Fico and Orb\u00e1n now appear to represent an alliance in Brussels which will make increasing the EU\u2019s military support for Ukraine increasingly challenging. And both leaders\u2019 lack of support for increasing sanctions on Russia further demonstrate growing disunity in the EU vis-\u00e0-vis the Russian-Ukraine war.<\/p>\n

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US Strikes Targets in Syria as Geopolitical Tensions Rise<\/h2>\n <\/div>\n
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The situation in the Middle East continues to escalate, with the US undertaking missile strikes on two locations in eastern Syria this morning. The US say the strikes were on a weapons storage facility and an ammunition storage facility linked to Iran\u2019s Revolutionary Guard. Last night Iran\u2019s foreign minister spoke at the UN and said that \u201cwe do not welcome expansion of the war in the region. But if the genocide in Gaza continues, they will not be spared from this fire\u201d \u2013 so both with words and with physical strikes, geopolitical tensions are manifestly increasing.<\/p>\n

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US Growth Projected to Have Accelerated over Q3<\/h2>\n <\/div>\n
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Yesterday afternoon, US GDP exceeded expectations, rising to 4.9% on a quarter-on-quarter basis for Q3. This represented the strongest level of growth since Q4 2021, when Q-on-Q GDP came in at 7%, as the world\u2019s largest economy continued their post pandemic recovery. Yesterday\u2019s print also marked a considerable increase seen from the 2.1% expansion seen in 2021.<\/p>\n

Over the third quarter, consumer spending rose 4% as many households continued to see positive wage growth. Exports also surged 6.2% marking a strong rebound from Q2\u2019s 9.3% contraction. Government spending also increased 4.6% helping to feed into dollar strength seen throughout the course of yesterday\u2019s session. For example, yesterday\u2019s print helped advance the DXY north of 106.75.<\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n

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ECB Hold<\/h2>\n <\/div>\n
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Yesterday, the ECB met market expectations in holding rates, marking the first hold since Frankfurt stated their latest tightening cycle in July 2022 which involved 10-consecutive rate hikes. Their decision means that their main refinancing operations rate stays at 4.5%, while their marginal lending facility is at 4.75% and their deposit facility is maintained at 4%. Their decision sees many within the financial markets hold the view that the ECB have reached their terminal rate.<\/p>\n

With the main refinancing rate at a 22-year high and headline inflation easing to 4.3% across the eurozone, some are now speculating on when the Eurozone may start to potentially cut rates. For example, with Goldman Sachs projecting that the ECB rate cycle has finished they now expect Frankfurt to start cutting rates in Q3 of next year.<\/p>\n

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Brussels Prime Minister cuts military aid to Ukraine, tensions in the Middle East continue to rise, US GDP exceeds expectations, and rates held by ECB.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":608,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"rp-language":[16],"class_list":["post-4075","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-morning-updates","rp-language-en_gb"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/hamiltoncourtfx.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4075","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/hamiltoncourtfx.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/hamiltoncourtfx.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hamiltoncourtfx.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/15"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hamiltoncourtfx.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4075"}],"version-history":[{"count":8,"href":"https:\/\/hamiltoncourtfx.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4075\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4083,"href":"https:\/\/hamiltoncourtfx.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4075\/revisions\/4083"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hamiltoncourtfx.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/608"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/hamiltoncourtfx.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4075"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hamiltoncourtfx.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4075"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hamiltoncourtfx.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4075"},{"taxonomy":"rp-language","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hamiltoncourtfx.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/rp-language?post=4075"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}