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Market Updates

GBPZAR – 9 June 2023

Morning Updates

Hopes of Anglo-US Trade Deal Dashed as Biden and Sunak Settle on ‘Atlantic Declaration’

Yesterday, President Joe Biden and Prime Minister Rishi Sunak unveiled their “Atlantic Declaration” which seeks to strengthen the countries economic ties, though the declaration merely stands in the place of a comprehensive trade agreement.

Market Updates

USDCAD – 7 June 2023

Market Updates

USDINR – 7 June 2023

Morning Updates

JP Morgan’s Opinion in Focus

JP Morgan have made some interesting points in the last couple of days: speaking about the Fed meeting next week, they’re concerned that if the FOMC do press the pause button, but were then forced to resume rate hikes either in July, or after the summer, in the face of stubborn inflation, what would this do to risk appetite in the market, because it might be a bit unnerving to see that the central bank hasn’t got a firm grasp on the problem.

Morning Updates

Halifax Index: UK House Prices Fall for First Time Since 2012

According to the Halifax house price index, the price of residential property fell for the first time since 2012. The 1% depreciation between May 2022 and May 2023 came in line with expectations as analysts assess the impact of higher interest rates on households.

Morning Updates

Nova Khakovka Dam Destroyed in Kherson, Ukraine

The vast Ukrainian Nova Khakovka Dam has been destroyed in the Russian occupied region of Kherson, Ukraine releasing a torrent of water as concerns for residents and nuclear power facilities up and downstream grows.

Morning Updates

Think Tank Seeks Backing for UBI Trial

Plans have been unveiled for a Universal Basic Income (UBI) trial in the UK, with the think tank Autonomy currently seeking financial backing. It is hoped that the trial will span over two years with participants receiving £1,600 each month and being in control of how they spend or save the funds.

Morning Updates

All Eyes on US Labour Market Data

Today all eyes are on US labour market data where the markets will be looking to gain an insight into the health of the US economy and the extent to which the jobs market is feeding into inflationary pressures ahead of the Fed’s meeting on 12 June.

Morning Updates

House Passes Debt Ceiling Bill

Last night, the House comfortably passed the debt ceiling bill in arguably the most important stage in the process to ensure that the world’s largest economy averts a technical default. The House of Representatives cleared the Fiscal Responsibility Act by 314-117, the bipartisan deal assembled by President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy.

Morning Updates

Debt Ceiling Agreement to go to House Vote

Tonight, congress will vote on the bill agreed by President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, as the US tries to avert X-date by raising the debt ceiling. According to Reuters, “the deal caps federal spending and forces more poor people to work for food aid, concessions that Democrats hate. But it also preserves much of Biden's Inflation Reduction Act and punts the next debt ceiling showdown into 2025, which Republicans hate.”

Market Updates

Core, Blimey!

As markets weigh on the Bank of England’s interest rate decision on 22 June, this morning’s hotter-than-expected inflation print has seen investors upwardly revise rate hike expectations. Indeed, market reaction to this morning’s print is a further reaffirmation that inflation continues to be the hottest topic of conversation.

Morning Updates

Erdogan Secures Another Five Years as Lira Plummets to Record Lows

The incumbent Recep Tayyip Erdogan has secured another five years as Turkey’s president following a run-off election which saw him take 52% of the votes, against Kemal Kilicdaroglu’s 48%

Morning Updates

UK Retail Sales Rise

UK retail sales rose higher-than-expected this morning having increased 0.5% on a month-on-month basis for April. This beat market expectations of a 0.3% rise and came after a 1.2% fall last month.

Morning Updates

Germany Enters Technical Recession

The latest data from Germany indicates that their economy contracted 0.3% during the first quarter of 2023. Given that this follows a contraction of 0.5% seen over Q4 2022, Europe’s largest economy is now in a technical recession.

Morning Updates

Core Inflation Surges to Highest Level Since 1992

Core inflation has risen to its highest level since March 1992, following a surge which saw the index rise from 6.2% in March to 6.8% in April.

Morning Updates

Biden and McCarthy Hold Debt Ceiling Talks

As the prospect of X-date grows ever closer, yesterday President Joe Biden and House Speaker, Kevin McCarthy held a “productive” meeting to discuss America’s debt ceiling crisis, though no agreement has been reached.

Morning Updates

Mitsotakis’ New Democracy Party Falls Short of Majority in Greek Elections 

The incumbent Greek prime minister, Kyriakos Mitsotakis and his centre-right New Democracy party have secured the largest share of the votes in the general election but has fallen just shy of a simple majority.

Morning Updates

All Eyes on G7

The G7 summit is taking place this weekend, in Hiroshima. The agenda will be packed and there’s almost certainly going to be more subjects that there are agreements.

Morning Updates

Bailey Expresses Concern with Wage-Price Spiral

Yesterday, the BoE’s Governor Andrew Bailey delivered a speech to British Chambers of Commerce which focused on inflation, wage growth and the labour market.

Morning Updates

Morning Update

Stellantis isn’t necessarily a household name, but their brands are: The owner of Jeep, Alfa Romeo, Vauxhall, Fiat and others is one of the world’s largest automobile manufacturers

Morning Updates

Brussels Upwardly Revises EU Growth Expectations

European Commission upwardly revises their growth forecasts for the EU

Morning Updates

Turkey Looks Set for Run-Off in Presidential Elections

There's the prospect of a second round for Turkey's presidential election.

Morning Updates

Turkey Looks for Change

The BoE did as expected yesterday and raised rates to 4.5%, which the market took fully in its stride.

Morning Updates

All eyes on US inflation

All eyes were on US inflation yesterday, which came out exactly in line with expectations and the same as it was last month…

Morning Updates

Bloomberg reports a trend for more temporary and contract workers

Bloomberg is reporting a trend amongst UK businesses to employ temporary and contract workers, rather than full time employees, amidst economic uncertainty and increasing wage costs.

Morning Updates

Weekly Run Down

Brits are becoming used to spending more and getting less for it and are adjusting their shopping habits accordingly.

Morning Updates

Closer to the end

The Fed hiked by 25 basis points, raising the benchmark Fed Funds Rate to 5.25% as expected.

Morning Updates

Pause, Pivot, Hike

This evening’s US interest rate announcement remains the key event risk for this week.

Morning Updates

BoE’s Huw Pill: Households “Need to Accept That They’re Worse Off”

Yesterday, the Bank of England’s chief economist maintained that British households must accept that they’re worse and stop pushing for higher pay as real wages fall at their fastest rates for 20 years.

Morning Updates

UK Budget Deficit in Focus

UK Budget Deficit Soars Over March

Morning Updates

Morning Update

Credit Suisse Results Show Bank Suffered $69bn in Outflows over Q1

Morning Updates

UK Retail Sales, US Labour Market and Inflation Driven Disputes

Retail Sales Fall as ONS Cites Poor Weather and Shortages

Morning Updates

Markets Weigh on Further Tightening from BoE

As markets digested UK CPI coming in hotter-than-expected and remaining in double digits, investors upwardly revised their rate hike expectations from the Bank of England.

Morning Updates

UK Headline CPI Remains in Double Digits

This morning has seen the UK’s headline CPI inflation figures remain in double digits, against estimates that it would drop into single digits for the first time since August 2022.

Morning Updates

UK Wage Growth Rises Above Forecasts As Unemployment Levels Increase

UK Wage Growth Rises Above Forecasts

Morning Updates

Survey Sees Rise in CFO Optimism

This morning, the release of Deloitte’s quarterly CFO Survey suggests that business sentiment has improved significantly.

Morning Updates

Biden Arrives in Northern Ireland

Yesterday evening, the US president arrived in Belfast for a four-day visit to the Island of Ireland.

Morning Updates

Morning Update

The Telegraph is leading with an article that Downing Street is planning an early election in the Autumn of 2024 as the party tries to reduce its gap in the polls and boost its chances of another term.

Morning Updates

Markets Weigh on Weaker-Than-Expected US Data

Weaker-Than-Expected US Data Sees Equities Close Lower

Morning Updates

Morning Update

Finland Joins Nato

Morning Updates

AI, NATO, US GDP and FPC Review in Focus

AI Could Replace 300,000,000 Jobs, Goldman Sachs Report Argues

Morning Updates

Morning Update

The UK’s largest asset manager, Legal and General have emphasised that businesses are insufficiently pricing in climate change associated risks.

Morning Updates

BRC Inflation Index Hits Highest Level Since Records Began

BRC Inflation Index Hits Highest Level Since Records Began

Morning Updates

All Eyes on Global Banking Sector as First Citizens Bank Buys SVB

First Citizens Buys SVB, As Markets Digest Choppy Session for Deutsche Bank on Friday.

Market Updates

UK GDP, SVB & Non-Farms in Focus

This morning UK GDP has come in higher-than-expected hitting month-on-month growth of 0.3% for January, against forecasts of 0.1%.

Market Updates

Bank of Canada Leaves Rates Unchanged

Yesterday, the Bank of Canada met market expectations by leaving rates unchanged at 4.5%.

Market Updates

Mann and Powell

Mann and Powell: Markets Digest Comments Both Sides of the Pond

Morning Updates

Morning Update

This morning saw the Reserve Bank of Australia raise rates by a further 25bpts, bringing the base rate to 3.6% after ten consecutive rate hikes.

Morning Updates

Morning Update

Kaja Kallas wins Second Term

Morning Updates

Morning Update

Musk Fails to Impress Investors in Texian Presentation

Market Updates

Banks’​ Net Interest Income, Supermarket Shortages and T-notes In Focus

Highstreet Banks See Net Interest Income Soar

Market Updates

Windsor Framework: An End in Sight to the Long Walk?

After months of political back and forth between Westminster, Brussels and Stormont, yesterday saw Rishi Sunak and Ursula von der Leyen agree on amendments to the Northern Ireland protocol as the two leaders met in Windsor.

Market Updates

NI Protocol and Dollar Index in Focus

DXY Rises To Seven Week High