The UK are set to increase the number of Russians on the sanctions list as well as ban the import of Russian diamonds. Copper, aluminium and nickel and will hope that other G7 nations will follow suit. Russian diamonds are a $4bn a year industry but, as plenty of films will allude to, controlling source of origin of diamonds is notoriously difficult to achieve. Banning or limiting Russian exports is having an effect though and the US are reporting that Russian oil revenues are down 43% in the year to April, compared to the year before, despite them having pumped at least the same volume of product – which the US claim is forcing the Kremlin to make tough budget choices.
Military and security conversations won’t just be confined to Ukraine though and Japan will be keen that there is a good amount of discussion around security in the Asia-Pacific region, particularly as relations with China and the G7 aren’t too great at the moment – one handed clap for Liz Truss who managed to completely undermine current UK diplomacy by giving a speech in Taiwan this week, much to the chagrin of both the UK and China – but given Japan is the geographically closest G7 member in the region, it may become an uncomfortable reality for them to have to take a more prominent position, both financially and rhetorically, if they are to convince other members to follow suit.
Xi Jinping is on the second and final day of the China-Central Asia Summit in Xi’an, where China is looking to build closer ties with the Central Asian Republics as recent geopolitical undercurrents are increasingly changing the regional landscape.
While historically, Russia has tried to maintain close ties with Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, their waning influence in the region – in light of their invasion of Ukraine – has formed a geological fault line which China are keen to fill. According to the FT “Russia has begun to lose influence across the former Soviet Union amid widespread disquiet over the war in Ukraine. Moscow has also lost its traditional peacekeeper role, being notably absent during border skirmishes between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan last year.”
The symbolism of hosting the summit in Xi’an is hard to understate given that the ancient Chinese town was a key stopover on the Silk Road, with merchants continuing their onward journey through the CAR region. 21st Century China has of course spent some $1tn on the Belt and Road Initiative since 2014, spending significant sums of money in the region. Indeed, just two years prior Xi also launched Beijing’s “March West” which again looked to create greater ties in the region. China remains the largest buyer of gas from the region and is keen to engage in further trade talks in relation to energy, commodities, and food. Accordingly, Xi stated that “to bolster our cooperation and Central Asian development, China will provide Central Asian countries with a total of 26 billion yuan ($3.8 billion) of financing support and grants”. With all eyes on the G7 this weekend, Beijing is keen to demonstrate its intentions to widen its sphere of influence as shifting geopolitical fault lines offer up opportunities.
Starmer’s Would Seek to Relax EU Trade Barriers If Labour Win GE.
During a speech yesterday, Sir Keir Starmer announced that if Labour were to win the next general election, he would seek to relax trade barriers with the EU within the first 18-months. The Labour leader is seeking to making it easier for British farmers to export into the single market, and likewise European farmers to sell into the UK market. It is understood that the same would be done for medicines and animals. This is the latest indication that the Labour Party would look to renegotiate the UK’s Brexit trading relationship, though the party will remain cognisant of wanting to recapture Red Wall votes and thus tread carefully.
UK Consumer Confidence Rises
This morning’s latest data release from GfK indicates that consumer confidence has risen to its highest level in a year, in line with expectations. This marked the fourth consecutive rise in the index and is a continuation of the upward trajectory since it hit lows in January 2023 and September 2022. In terms of different indexes that GFK measure, their Personal Financial Situation for the next 12 months index recorded an improvement having risen five points from last month while expectations over the general economy rose four points. Here, the client strategy director at GfK said: “The overall trajectory this year is positive and might reflect a stronger underlying financial picture across the UK than many would think. But everybody must hold on tight as it could still be a rocky ride out of these tough times.”
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Travel Tuesday, motion supported by Hungarian parliament to allow Sweden to join Nato, Trump's legal bill continues to grow interest with US monetary conditions at their tightest level in 22 years, and today's data.
Macro Monday, report from the BCC on the impact on British businesses from Red Sea disruption, Ukraine president announces number of deaths since the Russian full-scale invasion, and data releases today.
Friday feeling, what's happened in the last two years of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and more hawkish views from the Fed.
Thought for Thursday, House of Commons ceasefire vote decision, minutes released from Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting, geo-political update in Russia and Gaza, and looking at today's data.
Word of the week Wednesday, data indicates public sector net borrowing in surplus, this afternoons House of Commons vote for a ceasefire in Gaza, and release of FOMC policy me.eting minutes
Travel Tuesday, changes for China's property market, attacks on Red Sea Vessels cause further shipping disruption, EU defensive naval operation launched, and US propose a UN Security Council Resolution in the Middle East.
Macro Monday, update on Israel-Gaza conflict, town in Ukraine in full control of Russian forces, and pressure for creation of more public-private partnerships in the UK from insurers.
Friday Feeling, Labour take comfort in by-election results, potential for income tax cut plans to be dropped, president of European Commission speaks on European Union defence production.